Why AC Milan may struggle to defend their Serie A title

Stefano Pioli's side won the Scudetto for the first time in 11 years in 21/22

For the first time in 11 years, AC Milan are Champions of Italy once again. After almost a decade of domination by Juventus, the Old Lady saw their winning run interrupted by the two Milan sides, as Internazionale won the Scudetto in 20/21, before Milan beat their city rivals by two points to win it in 21/22. 

The Rossonerri’s return to being a title winning team is an inspiring one, as the club were in financial ruin just a few years ago and they have returned to the top end of the table through smart business in the transfer market - such as signing young Chelsea defender Fikayo Tomori, alongside using aging players like Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Simon Kjaer as leaders. 

However, despite the fact that Stefano Pioli’s side edged out Inter by two points, there is a sense that Milan rode their luck on the way to the title. Some might argue that teams make their own luck in football and that any team that wins the title deserves to have done so and there is an element of truth to that, of course. However, here are the reasons why it seems unlikely that Milan will be able to hold onto the Scudetto in 22/23. 

Inter had the better underlying numbers

Although Milan ultimately held the bragging rights, there’s an argument to be made that the team that finished in second were the better performers in the league. Two points separated first and second, but the gap in goal difference was significant, as Inter managed +52 to Milan’s +38.

Looking at the underlying numbers, the difference - 14 - is almost exactly the same, as Inter’s xGD was +42, with Milan’s +28. Both teams overachieved by ten, with a fairly even spread between overachieving in attack as well as in defence.

Serie A was the only one of the top five leagues where the team with the highest goal difference - and expected goal difference - didn’t win the title. Milan will be highly unlikely to win the title next season unless they can bring about a huge swing in goal difference. 

Milan scored significantly fewer goals 

The main reason for this large discrepancy in goal difference is that Inter scored significantly more goals than the Rossoneri. In fact, Inter were the top scorers in the league with 84, whilst Milan were behind Lazio and Napoli in fourth place for most goals scored, with a total of 69. 

Inter were able to rely on one man to carry the majority of their scoring, with Lautaro Martinez hitting 21 goals. However, they have confirmed the signing of Romelu Lukaku on loan for next season, so it seems most likely that they will be even more of a goal threat next season. 

In Milan’s case, goals were more spread out, which can be a good thing but they didn’t have a player spearheading their scoring effort, as Olivier Giroud and Rafael Leao joint top scored for them with 11 goals. They may need somebody to push closer to 20 next season if they are to make a concerted effort to retain their title. 

Won many games by a single goal

Continuing on this theme of not quite scoring enough goals; Milan won 13 games by a single goal margin in 21/22. Of course, it’s a well recycled phrase in football that the best teams can grind out results to win titles and Milan certainly did that last season. 

However, winning that many games by a single goal suggests that Milan were pretty lucky. There are so many variables in football that if they have as many close games next term, they won’t come out on top so often. As they only won the title by two points, it would only have taken one of those matches to ended up as a draw instead of a win and they would have lost out to Inter on goal difference. 

They won’t be making the level of signings that Inter or Juve are

Milan might have earned good money from their title win, alongside the cash coming in from another season in the Champions League. However, they still have to run on a tight budget and Inter and Juventus have far greater spending power. 

Inter have already brought in Lukaku and look set to add Paulo Dybala as well. Meanwhile, Juventus are on the brink of bringing Paul Pogba back to Turin, whilst Angel Di Maria may also join on a short-term deal. Milan will have to be very clever in the market to continue to improve their team and avoid standing still, whilst their biggest rivals improve. If they don’t it will be almost impossible to defend the crown they worked so hard for.