The stats that show why Ollie Watkins is a target for West Ham United

Ollie Watkins has impressed ever since making his Premier League move in the summer of 2020. Now he is subject of transfer speculation once again, as West Ham would like to prise him away from Aston Villa.

Reports broke on Tuesday (10 May) that David Moyes has made Ollie Watkins his number one target this summer, as West Ham United look to add another striking option to their squad. The Hammers have been overly reliant on Michail Antonio for too long and ever since they allowed Sebastian Haller to move to Ajax in January 2021, they haven’t had another senior centre forward option. Instead, Jarrod Bowen has operated as a striker at times, despite clearly being at his best from the right-wing. 

Although the goals have dried up for him a little in the second half of 21/22, Antonio has been the perfect centre forward for Moyes for the last two seasons. He has pace to run in behind, he is dominant in the air, he can hold the ball up and link up with midfielders and he gets into excellent positions in the penalty area, making him a regular goal threat.

When comparing Antonio and Watkins’ player profiles, it’s easy to see why Moyes would like to bring him to the London Stadium. Watkins can do all those things that Antonio can, with a little more pace about him. As well as that, he is 26-years-old, compared to 32 in Antonio’s case. He is also a lot less injury-prone than the Jamaican international.

Looking at the two from a statistical standpoint, we can see how closely matched they are. Firstly, on the goals front - Watkins has bettered Antonio by one in the Premier League this season, as he has 10 to the Hammers man’s 9. In Watkins' case, that came at a rate of 0.3 non-penalty goals per 90, whilst Antonio’s 9 were scored at 0.28 per 90. 

Considering how variable players’ finishing ability can seem from season to season, it’s generally better to compare the underlying numbers of non-penalty expected goals, rather than goals themselves. Knowing how often strikers get themselves in good positions to score is, in most cases, a better way to predict how a player will continue to deliver goals. In that metric, there is again barely anything between the two: Watkins has 0.36 non-penalty expected goals to Antonio’s 0.35. 

Watkins is a little better in his shot selection, as his slightly higher expected goals come from marginally fewer shots than Antonio’s. The Villa striker takes 2.37 shots per 90, compared to the West Ham man’s 2.41.

There is a larger discrepancy in the final two metrics, but still, the similarity between the two players is easy to see. When it comes to ‘progressive passes received’ - which is a metric that helps understand how a player makes themselves a target to receive the ball as their team moves it at least ten metres closer to the opponents’ goal - Antonio comes out on top. 

Again, it is close, but not on a knife-edge as the more goal-scoring related metrics are. The 32-year-old receives 8.66 progressive passes per 90, whilst Watkins receives 8.2.  Antonio is also superior when it comes to aerials won, as he wins 2.72 per 90, compared to Watkins with 2.42.

However, it should be noted that both of these metrics are weighted in Antonio’s favour, as West Ham go more direct than Villa do. The Hammers have attempted almost 500 more long balls than Steven Gerrard’s side this season. Thus, Watkins has had a disadvantage in these metrics. He has simply been playing in a team that are more patient with the ball. 

Whilst that is the case, that makes his performance for aerials won and progressive passes received more impressive. The former Brentford striker doesn’t have the same upper body build as Antonio, but he’s physically suited to play a role that requires a lot of back-to-goal play, as well as stretching defences by running beyond them. It’s likely that those metrics would scale up, should Watkins be transplanted into Moyes’ team. 

However, that will surely be a lot easier said than done. Villa paid £30million to take the striker from Brentford before he had even played a minute in the Premier League. Now that he has two seasons' worth of experience at the level, with 24 goals scored and England caps earned, his value will have increased hugely. Gerrard clearly likes Watkins and he won’t want to let him go. That could easily see the Midlands side ask for upward of £50million for their centre forward. With that in mind, Watkins might be perfect for West Ham but they will have to really push the boat out if they want to make a deal happen.