The stats that show what Raheem Sterling would bring to Chelsea

Whilst there was always a likelihood that he might leave Manchester City this summer due to a long contract standoff, it still came as a surprise in recent days to see that Raheem Sterling is expected to sign for Chelsea. As the England forward is in the last year of his contract, the fee is expected to be around £35million, which is a bargain for a top-quality Premier League proven attacker in their prime years.  

Chelsea have a reasonably significant rebuild ahead of them this summer, as they need to replace Andreas Christensen, Antonio Rudiger and Romelu Lukaku, who will be returning to Inter Milan. Whilst Sterling is a very different type of player, he will assist in replacing Lukaku, after the Belgian striker proved to be the wrong fit for Thomas Tuchel’s team.  

Here are the attributes that Sterling will add to Chelsea, should they complete a deal:  

 

Goal poaching  

Before Pep Guardiola’s arrival at Manchester City, Sterling was not a particularly reliable source of goals. He had never broken double figures in the Premier League before 17/18 but he has done in every season since, plundering 18, 17, 20, 10, and 13 goals. 

A key aspect in his goalscoring explosion has been Sterling’s excellent movement in the box. He has become a master at arriving on the end of crosses in the six-yard-box and this kind of movement will be vital for Tuchel, as his side plays a patient attacking style, which didn’t suit Lukaku. The Belgian wanted more space to operate in and fast attacks, whilst Tuchel’s slow attacking style meant opponents could compact the space and take away Lukaku’s strengths.  

Sterling would suit far better, having played up against deep defences throughout his time at City. His 13 goals in the 21/22 Premier League season came at a rate of 0.46 per 90, with an expected goals of 0.51 per 90. That demonstrates that he was scoring at a rate of almost a goal every other game, whilst his underlying numbers suggest that he could continue scoring at that rate. Notably, that 0.51 xG ranked him in the 99th percentile for wingers and the 89th percentile for strikers, which is a position the former Liverpool man played at times in 21/22.  

 

Dribbling 

Chelsea have a variety of different attacking options, but one thing they are slightly lacking in is players who like to regularly beat an opposition player. Mason Mount and Hakim Ziyech are more creative in their passing, whilst Timo Werner is a threat when there are opportunities to counter-attack. Callum Hudson-Odoi is perhaps the player most happy to dribble with the ball, but he was injured for a large portion of last season and doesn’t seem to be established as a fully fledged starter.  

In Sterling, they would gain a player who ranked in the 79th percentile for wingers when it comes to completed dribbles. Anecdotally, it feels like the England forward dribbles more often when playing for his national team than he has done for City though. This is highly likely because there is more space to play in for England than there is playing against low blocks for City. With Chelsea, it would likely be somewhere in the middle of the two, in terms of how often he would come up against low blocks. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Sterling’s dribbling stats go up, should that be the case.  

 

An outlet in-behind 

When Chelsea do get space to counter-attack, of course, they have Timo Werner as an option who suits that kind of situation. However, Werner is notoriously limited in other areas of his game. In Sterling, Chelsea could sign another player who can thrive running into space but also offers more quality.  

Looking at his stats, Sterling ranked in the 95th percentile for wingers according to the metric ‘progressive passes received’. This shows that he always makes himself an option to receive passes forward. Whilst playing for City, there aren’t as many of those opportunities to run beyond the last man, but whenever there are, Sterling is excellent at timing his run, be it into the channel to then put a cross in, or off a centre back to run through for a one-on-one opportunity with the goalkeeper.  

 

Why would City sanction this deal? 

On the face of it, it seems bizarre to think that CIty would sell one of their most reliable performers from the last few seasons to a team that only finished two places below them in the table. However, City famously don’t keep players around if they ask to leave and they clearly feel confident in their own recruitment, having signed Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez as new forwards. Chelsea will hope they can nail the rest of their recruitment and give Tuchel a team that can provide more competition for City, whilst Sterling will hope to produce the form to make them regret not keeping him as a major part of their own plans going forwards.