Can Everton cope without Richarlison?

The Brazilian is on the verge of a move to Tottenham Hotspur.

Everton suffered an extremely difficult season in 2021/22, as the Toffees had a serious brush with relegation, only securing their safety with a comeback victory in the penultimate game of the season. However, they look likely to struggle again next season, as their financial situation is so dire that they are forced to sell at least one of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, whilst there is strong interest from Tottenham Hotspur in Anthony Gordon as well.  

The Everton academy product was one of their most important players in avoiding relegation last season and they would certainly hope to retain him as a sign that they still have positive plans for the future.  

However, Spurs are about to secure the signing of Richarlison. Whilst the optics of that deal are perhaps not as bad as losing the club’s top academy prospect after just one season, the Brazilian will be a lot harder for Frank Lampard’s side to replace. Here is why:  

He dominated Everton’s attacking output 

Richarlison hit ten Premier League goals in 21/22 and picked up five assists. As Everton struggled for goals, his goal contributions were vital. He scored 23.3% of their total of 43 goals, ranking him 12th in the league for players who scored the highest portion of their team’s goals.  

Additionally, his five assists account for 35.9% of Everton’s assists. Notably, there is a difference in total of goals and assists as not every goal has an assist awarded.  

In terms of underlying numbers, the Brazilian international was only behind Calvert-Lewin for expected goals per 90, as he took shots valued at 0.28 per 90 to the England striker’s 0.32, showing that he was getting in good positions to score and not simply scoring from a lot of low-value shots that he wouldn’t be able to reproduce in future.  

In terms of creativity, interestingly,  his assists total seems inflated by some clinical finishing by his teammates. As we’ve established already, he contributed a total of five assists, coming at a rate of 0.18 per 90. However, his expected assists - a metric measuring the quality of chances created from a player’s passes - totalled 2.4, coming at a rate of 0.09 per 90. That means that the way his teammates finished the chances he created doubled the amount of goals Everton could have expected from them. In that sense, despite the importance of his assists, he could be improved as a creator. To further illustrate this, his expected assists total ranked him in just the 27th percentile for attacking midfielders and wingers in 21/22.  

He got the ball into dangerous positions 

As well as the goal contributions, Richarlison was key to Everton progressing the ball into dangerous positions from which to create scoring opportunities. He primarily did this by receiving the ball in wide positions and carrying the ball inside. According to fbref’s metric, progressive carries - a metric which measures how often a player carries the ball at least ten yards closer to the opponent’s goal - the Brazilan ranks in the 65th percentile in Europe for attacking midfielders and wingers with 3.65 per 90. This is a particularly impressive performance, given that Everton were a very poor team which had little of the ball in 21/22.  

He’s a pressing monster 

Without the ball, Richarlison added a lot of value for his team as a presser. He contributed 21.05 pressures per 90 last season, meaning that he was in the 92nd percentile for that metric. Whoever replaces the Spurs-bound man in Lampard’s lineup will need to provide similar pressing intensity, as Everton will likely still not be a ball-dominant team in 22/23. They will still need to be able to press regularly to win the ball back from their opponents.  

Who will replace him? 

Gordon would be the most likely player to take Richarlison’s spot on the left-wing, if the Toffees are able to hold on to the England U21 international.  

He would certainly be able to replace the intensity of Richarlison, given that his pressing stats are almost the same and anybody who has watched Gordon will recognise a player who is constantly on the move to make runs behind for his team, as well as runs to win the ball back.  

In terms of attacking output though, Gordon is a lot less impressive. His four goals and two assists came at a rate of 0.16 and 0.08 per 90. The underlying numbers for goalscoring suggest that he could have scored at a slower rate as well, with his expected goals coming at 0.13 per 90. This ranked him in the 14th percentile for wingers and attacking midfielders and doesn’t suggest that he will be a regular goalscorer if given the role of replacing Richarlison next season.  

When looking at expected assists, things are a little healthier, as his 0.13 per 90 is higher than the Brazilian’s performance in the same metric and suggest that he could serve Calvert-Lewin a little better.  

Of course, given more game-time in 22/23, Gordon could improve on these metrics and show that he can be Everton’s man for the future. However, he will hope that Calvert-Lewin also remains at the club as Everton surely cannot lose their two biggest goal threats from the last few seasons.