Weekend tips: The Premier League is back

The Nap 

Leeds were perilously close to going down last season and one wonders just how they intend to replace talent such as Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips. The Brazilian scored 11 and weighed in with three assists last season and it will not be any consolation for their fans that at time of writing they have made a profit in the transfer window so far this summer. Even though pre-season results have been encouraging, the squad does not look as though it has the quality or depth required. They look a striker and a left-back short at least and don’t look overly tempting at 7/5 to win their opening game against Wolves.

The good news is that only relegated duo Norwich and Watford scored less goals than Wolves last season. However, Leeds managed just 19 themselves in 19 home matches, suggesting goals could be at a premium at Elland Road.

Leeds look more organised at the back under Jesse Marsch, and after the expansive football under Marcelo Bielsa Leeds fans could be in for a sobering season under the Wisconsin native.

The Nap – Leeds v Wolves Under 2.5 goals at 5/6 (Betway)

 

Value Tip 

The London Stadium is not the easiest place to go and get a result, as Manchester City know only too well.

The champions’ last three visits in the league have ended in draws, and the draw looks a big runner on Sunday at 4/1. Keeping hold of Jarrod Bowen and Declan Rice was imperative for David Moyes and it looks as though both Hammers are staying put. Gianluca Scamacca looks another quality signing, with Moyes ending his 18-month search for a new striker when he signed the Italian for £35m from Sassuolo last week.

The Citizens have won four Premier League titles in five seasons and will again be the team to beat, especially after signing the exciting Erling Haaland. However West Ham won’t roll over here on a ground where just two months ago they held up City’s title chase by claiming a 2-2 draw. With new players on both sides potentially needing another few weeks to find their feet, the smart play could be on this one finishing all square once again.

Value Tip – West Ham and Manchester City to draw at 4/1 (Betfred/Betfair/Coral/Paddy Power)

 

First Goal Flutter

While keeping hold of Mo Salah was a priority for Liverpool this season, one man currently flying under the radar who could ignite is Luis Diaz. The 25-year-old scored six goals and registered five assists in just 27 appearances for Liverpool last season, and the Colombian is already a firm favourite on the Kop.

The Reds travel to Fulham on Saturday, and Diaz looks a big price at 7/1 to score first. The Cottagers strolled to the Championship title, but managed just five wins during their most recent top-flight campaign and arguably could not have been handed a tougher start. All eyes will be on Salah and new boy Darwin Nunez, while Aleksandar Mitrovic netted 43 goals to break the all-time goalscoring record in the English Championship last term. However, it’s the marauding Diaz cutting in from the wing who could be the man with the plan.

He’s almost unshakable on the ball, very direct and has pace to burn. With Sadio Mane having left for Bayern Munich it really could be the South American’s time to shine and Fulham may not be able to handle him in the west London sunshine.

First Goal Flutter – Diaz to score first at 7/1 (Skybet)

 

The Euro Banker

AC Milan won a compelling Scudetto race last season – their first since the 2010/11 season – and this season should be another roller-coaster. Each of the last three Serie A titles have been won by different clubs, suggesting that retaining the league title in Italy is more difficult than winning it. The Rossoneri are 5/1 third favourites to retain the title, with Roma as short as 8/1 in places as they build momentum under Jose Mourinho. And punters who like a value punt could do worse than give Napoli a second glance at 22/1.

Juventus have strengthened after signing the useful Federico Chiesa, re-signing the enigmatic Paul Pogba as well as veteran Angel Di Maria, but have also sold defender Matthijs de Ligt to Bayern Munich. With so many changes it may take a while for The Old Lady to get going.

Not so Inter Milan, who have kept together the bulk of a squad that went mighty close to the league last season, as well as re-signing Romelu Lukaku. The Belgian was a flop at Chelsea but seems a different player when he plays in Italy. Andre Onana is another good signing in goal, and if they can tighten things up a bi defensively they look a solid bet to win the league at

The Euro Banker – Inter Milan to win Serie A at 15/8 (Bet Victor)