Weekend Tips: Nations League picks

The Nations League officially kicked off on Wednesday, but the big games are happening this weekend. England, Italy, Germany, Portugal and Spain are the big one's looking to take the crown from France. We've got three good picks for you here.

Value Tip

International football takes centre stage again as the UEFA Nations League dominates the landscape in June. France are in possession of the trophy after their 2-1 success over Spain in Milan last October and the bookies fancy them to retain their title this year. It’s easy to see why. Les Bleus have some serious attacking talent in their ranks with the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Paul Pogba, Ousmane Dembele, Antoine Griezmann and newly crowned Champions League winner Karim Benzema.  They have also been handed a favourable group, with A1 featuring Didier Deschamps’ men alongside Denmark, Croatia and Austria.

France are a top price 4/1 (betway/888 Sport) for success, but of the market leaders, I would perhaps rather be on Spain at 6/1. Spain are really evolving under Luis Enrique and have a vibrant young squad who could go all the way. They were actually just over 30 minutes away from winning the last Nations League after Mikel Oyarzabal latched on to a long pass from Sergio Busquets to give them the lead against the French in Milan. However, goals from Benzema (who else?) and Mbappe eventually earned France a 2-1 win at the San Siro.

Yet Spain will have little to fear from a section containing Portugal, Czech Republic and Switzerland and they have the players to go one better than last season this time around. The likes of Ferran Torres, Ansu Fati, Gavi and Pedri are getting better and better. Moreover, with established stars like Thiago Alcantara, Aymeric Laporte, Sergio Busquets and David de Gea still involved La Roja look to have the perfect blend of youth and experience. 

The bookies have Gareth Southgate’s England as 8/1 shots generally, but the Three Lions have been placed in a ‘Group of Death’ of sorts alongside Italy, Germany and Hungary.  It’s such a difficult group to predict with the Germans a top price 10/1 with bet365 to win the tournament and Italy the same price with betway. Hungary, who England kick off against on Saturday, are the tournament rank outsiders at 250/1. Cases can be made for England, Germany or Italy to win Group A3 and it should be interesting to see who comes out on top.

Spain though, who should definitely make it through to the semis, look the outright shout at 6s under progressive coach Enrique.

Value Tip: Spain to win the UEFA Nations League at 6/1 (bet365/Betfair/Coral/Ladbrokes/Paddy Power)

Banker

As stated, England get their campaign under way in Budapest this weekend when they take on Hungary.

Confusingly Southgate’s men will play in front of at least 30,000 fans - even though the fixture is being held behind closed doors – with the Hungarian Football Association using a UEFA loophole that allows children to attend, accompanied by an adult.

Hungary performed impressively at Euro 2020, drawing with France and Germany. Since then, they have also held England to a 1-1 draw at Wembley last October (WC Qualifier). However, the Three Lions have made a strong start to 2022, posting back-to-back wins over Switzerland and Ivory Coast.

Much has been made over the lack of balance down the left in Southgate’s latest squad, but they have world class talent everywhere you look and it will take a good side to beat them this summer. There are two new faces in the group too, with Leicester City defender James Justin and West Ham United forward Jarrod Bowen getting call ups after impressive 2021/22 campaigns with their clubs.

England know only the group winners will advance to the last four, so will be aiming to claim maximum points and can do so under Southgate, who is experienced enough to juggle a squad that could contain some player fatigue after a long and arduous domestic season. England are 2/5 generally to get the job done, but that looks a bit on the short side considering they did not shine at all in their last match against the Hungarians last October.

The Three Lions have won five of their last seven matches without conceding however, so a better angle if you fancy Southgate’s men could be taking the 21/20 that they win to nil.

Banker: England to win to nil at 21/20 (Bet Victor)

First Goal Flutter

Germany kicks off their UEFA Nations League Group A schedule with a daunting away game against reigning European champions Italy. It should be a cracking contest with Italy priced up as 13/8 favourites. The Azzurri’s long unbeaten run was ended by Spain last October, but they are well drilled and tough to beat under Roberto Mancini.

It’s a tough match to call as Germany’s recent form – DWWWWW – has been excellent. There is a young generation of talent coming through for Die Mannschaft, with precocious youngsters such as Nico Schlotterbeck or Jamal Musiala catching the eye last season.

RB Salzburg youngster Karim Adeyemi hit 24 goals in 42 matches last season, and he also looks a real talent. Adeyemi possesses incredible acceleration and athleticism and doesn’t look a bad bet at 4/1 to score first in Bologna.

First Goal Flutter: Karim Adeyemi to score first at 4/1 (Paddy Power)