Derek Bilton
Weekend tips: Merseyside derby, Arsenal bounce, Bayern v Dortmund
We should have a fantastic weekend of football coming up as Everton travel to Liverpool, Arsenal host Manchester United and Bayern Munich face Borussia Dortmund.
The Nap
Manchester United have announced Erik ten Hag as their new manager from the end of this season and it will be interesting if this appointment can galvanise the Red Devils, who face a tough trip to Arsenal on Saturday. Ten Hag will become United's fifth permanent manager since Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013, and it remains to be seen whether he can get them back to winning ways and winning trophies.
United have won nothing since their 2017 Europa League success under Jose Mourinho - their longest period without silverware since a wretched spell between 1977 and 1983. That won't change this season of course with their European and FA cup dreams long since extinguished, but if they can somehow sneak into the top four it means the Dutchman will at least be able to lead them in the Champions League next season.
It's going to be an uphill task however. They were shocking against Liverpool in midweek, while Arsenal were sensational for long spells in that 3-2 win at Chelsea (a result tipped on on these very pages at 100/30!). That win at Stamford Bridge has given Arsenal’s Champions League a much-needed shot in the arm, and their recent form at the Emirates has not been that bad either, with them winning 10 of their 16 Premier League home outings this term.
Arsenal are also unbeaten in their last three Premier League home matches against the Red Devils, who recent record in north London is not great. Indeed this Manchester United squad reeks of division and conflict, contains too many star names who are not doing the business, and momentum is clearly with Arsenal, who are worth a go here at 11/10.
The Nap – Arsenal to win at 11/10 (Betfair/Coral/Skybet)
Value Tip
Chelsea suffer their third successive home defeat against Arsenal in midweek and you wonder whether the bookies have got their sums right by pricing West Ham at bigger than 5/1 to win at Stamford Bridge?
That spell has seen them concede 11 goals, and while the Blues should comfortably finish in the top four they are being handed third place in the Premier League not by churning out win after win, but due to the inconsistency of teams below them.
The Hammers beat Chelsea 3-2 back in December, and while they may well have one eye on Thursday’s huge Europa League showdown with Eintracht Frankfurt, local bragging rights are on the line here and this West Ham side is plenty good enough to upset the odds.
Rumours persist that Thomas Tuchel wants to sign Declan Rice and play him in Chelsea’s new-look midfield next season. Rice is still very much a West Ham man at time of writing but might want to prove a point to Tuchel by putting in a big shift this Sunday.
Value Tip – West Ham to win at 11/2 (Betfair/Coral/Hills)
First Goal Flutter
Everton have lost every away game Frank Lampard has taken charge of so far and have also failed to score in six of the last nine Merseyside derbies. It’s little wonder then that Liverpool are no bigger than 1/5 to beat Everton on Sunday.
It’s a huge game for both sides but for very different reasons. Everton are embroiled in a tense relegation battle while Liverpool are up to their necks in a thrilling title race with Manchester City that looks like going to the wire.
"We are not stupid," Pep Guardiola told BBC Sport after City’s 3-0 win over Brighton on Wednesday night. "If we draw, drop just two points, Liverpool will be champions.” He’s got a point. Liverpool are unbeaten in 13 Premier League matches and have a forward line that is scarily good.
Mo Salah is out on his own as Premier League top scorer with 22 goals, but Diogo Jota has 15 and Sadio Mane has scored 14 in England’s top tier. Bobby Firmino remains top drawer, while much has been made of Luis Diaz’s blistering start to life at Anfield.
Indeed Diaz makes plenty of appeal to score first at 11/2 this weekend. The initial £37.5million transfer fee already looks like a bargain for the Colombian, who has pace to burn and likes to go at defenders.
The 25-year-old has tenacity, power and skill to burn and having scored first against Manchester United in midweek could be the man to get Anfield rocking again this Sunday.
First Goal Flutter – Diaz to score first at 11/2 (bet365)
The Euro Banker
Bayern Munich are one win away from a tenth straight Bundesliga crown and they will look to confirm their domestic superiority by winning ‘Der Klassiker’ this weekend.
Borussia Dortmund are second in the table put nine points adrift of their Bavarian rivals after 30 matches. There are only four games left in the Bundesliga so it’s do or die for Dortmund.
This is a good but hardly great Bayern side, and they will still be hurting following their dramatic Champions League exit at the hands of Villarreal.
This should be quite the spectacle. BVB hit six against Wolfsburg last time out, while Bayern have the brilliant Robert Lewandowski up top. Bayern prevailed 3-2 when the teams last met in December, while Dortmund’s league fixtures this season have averaged an exciting 3.97 goals per game. With this in mind, better than 6/4 about this match featuring more than four goals looks a shout.
