Weekend Tips: FA Cup final, Premier League and Serie A action

It's a packed weekend this week. There's the Premier League, the FA Cup final on Saturday and all other European leagues in play. It's tough to find the best picks, so we've got you covered.

The Nap

There is a sense of Deja-Vu about the 2022 FA Cup Final between Chelsea and Liverpool. That is of course because the same teams contested the EFL Cup final back in February, with the Reds edging a dour battle after a penalty shootout.

The last time the same teams contested both domestic showpiece finals in England in the same season was 1992-93, when Arsenal beat Sheffield Wednesday in both finals.

It’s the 150th anniversary year of the world’s oldest knockout competition, and neutrals tuning in on Saturday would no doubt love a goal-fest between these two clubs. However, their EFL Cup final finished goalless and defences could again be on top at Wembley.  

While everyone has been rightly waxing lyrical about Liverpool this season, there is actually precious little between these two teams. This will be the fourth meeting of the season between the Reds and the Blues, with the other three matches all ending level after 90 minutes.

Liverpool - in their first FA Cup final for a decade - have lifted the trophy in exactly 50 per cent of their 14 previous FA Cup Final appearances (7 wins). That’s not a great percentage as it goes, and Chelsea will feel they have a real shout on the day.

In Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel, the FA Cup Final will see two German managers go head-to-head for the very first time, and one of Mr Klopp or Mr Tuchel will become the first German manager to lift the famous old trophy.

Tuchel has his critics. However, by kick-off on Saturday he will have been in charge of Chelsea for just one year and 108 days. This is his fourth major final during period (2 x FA Cup, 1 x League Cup and 1 x Champions League) so people need to start putting some respect on his name.

Liverpool’s quadruple hopes have taken a potentially fatal hit in the last seven days, but they are rightful favourites for this. Some of their football this season has been breath-taking and they are just the second team in Premier League history (after Man City in 2013/14) to have three players reach 15 goals in a single season. It could be mighty close again, but have faith in Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Colombian livewire Luis Diaz to get them over the line.

The Nap – Liverpool to beat Chelsea in 90 minutes at 21/20 (Betfred/Betfair/Coral/888 Sport)

 

Value Tip

It would be nice to be proved wrong but as stated Saturday’s showpiece could be a low-scoring affair. In the last five meetings between the teams, ‘Over 2.5 goals’ has only copped once.

Liverpool have kept 21 Premier League clean sheets this season, while Chelsea themselves have kept 16. Klopp’s men have won 11 of their last 15 Premier League matches to nil, so given the occasion – there were no goals after 120 minutes at Wembley in the League Cup Final - this could be cagey.

The Reds' midfield lynchpin Fabinho has been ruled out with a hamstring strain, but his absence may not be enough to open things up for Chelsea when Liverpool still have Rolls Royce defenders such as Virgil van Dijk to call on.

Chelsea’s league form has tailed off since their dramatic Champions League exit in Madrid, and their history in cup finals suggest that goals could be at a premium. They beat Manchester United 1-0 after extra-time back in 2007 and all seven subsequent final appearances since then have all been decided by 1-0 or 2-1 margins.

Tuchel’s men will be up for this, but Liverpool 1-0 looks a solid call in terms of the correct score betting.

Value Tip – Liverpool to win 1-0 at 15/2 (Hills/Bet Victor)

 

First Goal Flutter

Man City moved a giant step closer to their fourth Premier League crown in the last five seasons by beating Wolves in midweek. That Molineux victory was not just a win; it was a statement of intent.

Kevin De Bruyne hit four in City’s 5-1 destruction of Wolves, and it all means they only need four points from their final two fixtures to wrap up a fourth title in five seasons. Each of De Bruyne's goals for his 24-minute hat-trick came with his ‘weaker’ left foot. Next level nonchalance from the Belgian.

West Ham could still be hurting following their Europa League exit, but might not roll over against the Citizens here. Indeed the Hammers have scored in every Premier League home game this season, so we should get a free-flowing game.

De Bruyne is in rare form however. His vision and his passing are next level, and he might be the best player in the world at the minute on current form.

In his last six games, he has found the net against Burnley, Liverpool and Wolves and 6/1 with Skybet that he scores first at the London Stadium looks worth a go.

First Goal Flutter – De Bruyne to score first at 6/1 (Skybet)

 

The Euro Banker

The Scudetto race looks like going down to the wire between AC Milan and crosstown rivals Inter. The former face Atalanta this Sunday and are in the driving seat with two games to go.

Milan are unbeaten in their last 14 matches and while they are not scoring goals by the bucket load, defensively they are excellent.

The result is far from a foregone conclusion however as Atalanta are chasing European football themselves. They were in the Champions League qualification mix at one point, but an erratic second half of the season has left them with 59 points after 36 matches.

Eight of Milan’s last 10 games have featured ‘Under 2.5 goals’ so 31/20 about this game featuring less than three goals looks too big.

The Euro Banker – Under 2.5 goals at 6/5 (Paddy Power)