Weekend tips: England v Italy rematch

England’s UEFA Nations League hopes are already hanging by a thread after claiming just one point from a possible six from their first two matches. They are bottom of Group 3 and while the real test obviously awaits in Qatar, it won’t be great for confidence if they are eliminated from this tournament early doors.

Banker

It’s Italy next at Molineux on Saturday night and Gareth Southgate’s men are a top price 5/6 to beat the reining European champions. The Azzurri broke English hearts last summer by winning a tense penalty shootout in the Euro 2020 final, and the Three Lions would class a win this weekend as payback of sorts.

The Three Lions boss has been accused of adopting a cautious approach while at the helm and despite giving the country a summer to remember 12 months ago there is also a nagging feeling that England should be doing much better given their attacking riches.

They set up very conservatively against Germany on Tuesday but it is worth noting what happened when Southgate made some positive substitutions and England suddenly came alive. Jack Grealish was only on the pitch for 20 minutes but he changed the whole narrative at the Allianz Arena. Southgate needs to start trusting the Manchester City star, as it is actually criminal he gets as little game time as he does.

It’s fine for a manager to experiment before a major tournament, but too many of Southgate’s starting XI’s look disjointed. Too cautious. Too negative.

To be fair Italy have endured a torrid time since winning the Euros last summer. They were pipped by Switzerland for automatic qualification to the World Cup then as heavy betting favourites lost a playoff to North Macedonia.

They were pumped 3-0 by Argentina in the Finalissima last week, and in their last outing drew 1-1 with Germany. Roberto Mancini has chosen to blood younger players following their World Cup qualification debacle, but Mancini is another boss who prefers defensive pragmatism to artistry.

There’s every chance this match won’t feature a lot of goals, given the mind-set of both managers and the fact we are at the end of a very demanding domestic season.

However if Southgate decides to take the handbrake off, then Harry Kane to score anytime at 8/5 looks a play. His equaliser from the spot in Munich took Kane clear of Sir Bobby Charlton and just three behind Wayne Rooney. He will surely break that record. With two games to come in the next week, he might not have to wait long to do so either.

Banker: Kane to score anytime v Italy at 8/5 (bet365)

 

Value

Elsewhere Hungary are second top of Group 3 and look too big at 8/1 to beat Germany at home this weekend.

The Magyars have looked decent so far, beating England 1-0 and only losing narrowly 2-1 to Italy in their second Nations League game. These two sides met at Euro 2022 in the group phase and played out an exciting 2-2 draw.

Some of their top names such as Willi Orban, Peter Gulacsi and Dominik Szoboszlai are established stars in the Bundesliga so will know all about the threat carried by Germany.

It’s a new era for Germany under Hansi Flick, who is making the Germans hard to beat. However Die Mannschaft have drawn their last three competitive matches and if they can keep the brilliant Jamal Musiala quiet, Hungary are not without hope on home soil.

Value: Hungary to beat Germany at 8/1 (SBK)

 

First Goal Flutter

Scotland face a rare clash against Republic of Ireland on Saturday in Dublin. Indeed, it’s the first time the teams will have faced off since 2015, and on that occasion they played out a rather dour 1-1 draw at the Aviva Stadium. The teams have met 11 times before, and it could not be much closer. The Irish have four wins, as do the Scots, and there have been three draws.

Both teams blow hot and cold, and Scotland will still be coming to terms with their heart-breaking World Cup playoff defeat to Ukraine last week. That defeat means Scotland's 24-year wait to reach a World Cup finals goes on. Steve Clark has certainly improved the Tartan Army since taking over, and they are a tempting price at 11/5 at first glance.

However, the value shout here could be backing ‘No Goalscorer’, with both teams routinely struggling to find the net on the big stage. Do not expect an end-to-end thriller in Dublin. Both teams like to focus on keeping it solid at the back and in truth neither side are blessed with any truly world class attacking talent. Taking ‘No Goalscorer’ as opposed to backing a 0-0 correct score also means punters would be paid out in the event the game finished 1-0 either way courtesy of an own goal, as own goals do not count in first goalscorer markets.

The Irish showed how inconsistent they remain by losing to Armenia recently. Their inability to put away lesser teams is a worry and Stephen Kenny’s side are well grounded as opposed to flamboyant, suggesting this is nailed on to be another low-scoring affair.

First Goal Flutter: No Goalscorer at 6/1 (bet365/Betfair/Betfred/Hills)