Top five U23 forwards in Europe’s big five leagues valued under €50m according to expected goals

Last week, Manchester City completed the signing of Erling Haaland and many of Europe's top teams will have their eyes on signing a star forward for next season. However, many won't have the same budget that City have.

The two hottest forwards in world football at the moment are both under the age of 23, in Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe. Those two forwards have been constant sources of transfer speculation for some time, with Haaland's future finally put to bed this week as Manchester City announced their agreement with Borussia Dortmund to sign him. Real Madrid still expect to sign Mbappe, and whilst he will be a free transfer, there are very few clubs in the world who could afford to do the deal.

With that in mind, there are many teams in Europe who will be keen to bring in a young forward who can make an immediate impact on their team - whilst also being a longterm solution - ahead of next season, who have to operate on a smaller budget. Here are five players that could be of interest to those teams, with all of these players being valued under €50million according to Transfermarkt. These players have been selected as they are the five best performers according to expected goals per 90 in their age group.

 

Bamba Diend (Marseille): 0.6

First on the list is Marseille’s Senegalese forward, Bamba Dieng. The 22-year-old has played as a centre-forward and on the wing this season and has primarily been a substitute. This may be inflating his figures here as coming on late in the game to attack tired defenders is generally easier. 

He has managed to score seven goals in Ligue 1 this season, averaging 0.66 goals per 90. This is very close to his expected goals figure of 0.6 so suggests that he hasn’t been simply on a hot-streak of finishing but is regularly getting in the right positions to score.

He will perhaps be a player that is on the watchlist of many, but it seems unlikely that he will be a target just yet, given that he is still relatively experienced in a major league.

 

Hugo Ekitike (Reims): 0.52

Next up, we have another young forward from Ligue 1. Ekitike was a target for Newcastle United in January and whilst he remained in France for the season, the Magpies may well return for the 19-year-old who has scored nine goals in France’s top tier this season. 

Those goals have come at 0.69 per 90, a figure significantly higher than his xG of 0.52. There are some players who regularly outscore their xG - such as Tottenham Hotspurs’ Heung-Min Son - who we can suggest are elite finishers. It is too early to say if Ekitike is one of those but the fact that his expected goals would amount to a goal every other 90 minutes suggests that he will score a lot of goals in his career, even if his finishing hits a downturn.

 

Matheus Cunha (Atletico Madrid): 0.52

Cunha would perhaps be the most difficult player to sign out of any of these, due to the fact that he only moved to the Wanda Metropolitano last summer. That being said, he would likely feel that he has not played as often as he would like, as he has featured for just 1000 minutes in La Liga. 

However, he has still scored more often than a goal every other game with his average of 0.55 goals per 90 and total of six league goals. This is just above his expected goals of 0.52 per 90, showing that his finishing is likely sustainable. 

As he has been more of a bit-part player for Atleti, the Spanish club might be receptive to offers, should any team make a major play for the Brazilian forward.

 

Lukas Nmecha (Wolfsburg): 0.45

The Manchester City youth product made a permanent move to Wolfsburg last summer for a fee of €8million. He had spent previous seasons on loan but this is his first in one of the big five European leagues and he has impressed with eight goals. 

He has struggled in the second half of the season, only scoring twice since injuring his ankle in December and missing eight games. However, his eight goals were still scored at 0.47 per 90, which is impressive for a player stepping up a notch in terms of the competition they play in. He may be one that teams higher up might want to see produce similar numbers for another season before making any move for him.

 

Gianluca Scamacca (Sassuolo): 0.45

The Sassuolo forward is the player with the highest amount of minutes played this season (1,966) as well as scoring the highest amount of goals (14). He is being tracked by a lot of top teams and it won’t be a surprise to see him make a move this summer, given how excellent his performance has been. 

His 14 goals have come at the incredible rate of 0.64, which is significantly above his expected goals of 0.45. Like Ekitike, it’s too early to suggest that he will be an elite finisher throughout his career but he also overachieved on his xG last season, although not as impressively. 

He will likely be a target for teams looking for an all-round striker, capable of playing with his back to goal and bullying defenders, as well as linking with midfielders and scoring goals.