The Premier League's biggest xG under-performers

A look at the players who are under-performing most in front of goal in the Premier League, ranked by the difference between their actual and expected non-penalty goals.

Strikers are prone to dry spells in front of goal. It is just a simple matter of fact, if every forward converted every half-chance they had, football would be much more like basketball, but thankfully that is not the case.

It's what makes an ability to regularly score goals one of the most valuable assets in the game. Clean sheets are important to protect results, but goals win you games, simple as that.

So when prominent goal-scorers go through patches of rough form, it is always a cause of concern. And below we have rounded up the players who are under-performing most in front of goal in the Premier League this season.

Under-performance here is being measured with respect to Expected Goals(xG) which measures the probability of a chance becoming a goal on various parameters. Here we are considering non-penalty xG, which removes any influence of penalties on the xG tally of players.

Harry Kane tops the chart - just not the one he would want.

Kane’s lack of goals has definitely been a concern for Spurs, however, his underlying numbers still remain healthy which suggests that this is potentially just a blip in his performances and that he should soon pick up form.

Just behind him is Manchester City’s Gabriel Jesus, but given that Pep Guardiola’s side are the second-highest scoring team in the league with 55 goals, Jesus’ under-performance will hardly be of any concern for them.

Further down the rankings we find Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo who does have three goals so far in the Premier League but should have at least three more according to his npxG. A key figure in Thomas Frank’s Brentford side, Mbeumo’s under-performance might lessen to a certain extent if Christian Eriksen has the desired effect on Frank’s side.

Francisco Trincao, meanwhile, has found a new lease of life under Bruno Lage at Wolves and though he has not scored a single goal so far, his team-mates have not been overly impressive either, so expect him to pick up form and do well before the end of the season.

Sadio Mane’s underperformance suggests that he should at least have two more goals than he does so far. But eight goals in the league so far is decent and he is on course to improve on his tally of 11 from last season.

Though Armando Broja’s goals have shown promise, summer signing Adam Armstrong is yet to really kick on in the top-flight - only two goals so far for the former Blackburn Rovers hitman and his numbers suggest he should have at least two more.

West Ham United’s Jarrod Bowen is on similar numbers at the moment, however, given that David Moyes’ side have multiple pieces in attack to rely on, the effects of Bowen’s underperformance of -2.1 are not as prominent.

Manchester City’s Jack Grealish is another of the bigger underperforming attackers this season. Only two goals thus far for the Englishman is a slight concern further underlined by his underperformance of -2.

It’s worth noting, however, that he is playing in a different role for Manchester City as compared to what he did at Aston Villa so the lack of goals might be due to that as well.

Cristiano Ronaldo is likely the most standout name in the list of most under-performing forwards. Only six goals so far for the Portuguese in the Premier League suggests the reunion has not been a very happy one. However, his under-performance of -1.7 is not a glaring concern given he is central to United’s output in attack and his numbers should improve by the end of the season.