The Premier League's biggest xG over-performers

A look at the Premier League players who have over-performed the most against their expected non-penalty goals.

The Midas touch is one often seen in forwards. The goals come with almost every shot on target; half-chances are taken; even some of the no-chances end up in the back of the net. A lot of these finishing streaks can be attributed to a number of factors.

Some forwards run on confidence and some forwards are generally just streaky in terms of their finishing.

Which is why it can be difficult to assess whether a hot streak of goals can result in actual long-term results where the goals come on a consistent basis.

It is, therefore, worth looking at whose numbers are on a hot streak and assessing who among Premier League forwards is overperforming the most?

The name that immediately stands out is Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah, who has over-performed his underlying Expected Goals numbers by +3.90, according to Statsbomb via FBref. Which is to say that he’s scored almost four more goals that he should not have been able to, from the quality of his chances.

Salah’s tally of 14 non-penalty goals has come from a non-penalty xG tally of 10.1. The Egypt international’s hot streak may not necessarily continue, but given his positive underlying numbers in terms of shot volume and quality, he is on course to have another excellent season for Liverpool.

The next big name in terms of over-performing forwards is Emile Smith-Rowe, who has eight goals so far this season for Arsenal. He has over-performed on his npxG tally the most, by a margin of +4.40.

Given that he takes a low volume of shots per90(1.90), this kind of return on the quality of his chances is unsustainable. However, given that Arsenal are now without Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Smith-Rowe is likely to reach double figures for goals long before the season ends.

Emmanuel Dennis of Watford, meanwhile, has been one of the club’s better players this year and was a shining light in games earlier in the season.

With eight goals and five assists so far this season, Dennis has already made a productive start to life in English football. It might be unlikely that we’ll see a repeat of these numbers in the future, though, because Dennis is over-performing significantly on his npxG numbers.

Scoring about three goals more than he should have, his over-performance margin of +3.6 is something to keep in mind. It is unlikely that he will remain a perennial goal threat for Watford.

Dennis is still a relatively high-volume shooter, averaging 2.34 shots per90, however, the quality of chances at 0.27 npxG per90 is less than impressive.

Leicester City hitman Jamie Vardy is another notable outlier in terms of overperforming forwards this season.

Vardy’s tally of nine goals so far in the Premier League has seen an overperformance of 2.8 as per his npxG overall numbers. Then again, Vardy is quite literally the fox in the box.

He has made an art out of scoring goals in seemingly unlikely scenarios and, even at the age of 35, continues to be a big part of Leicester’s offensive production.

Manchester City’s Bernardo Silva also features as an outlier for overperformers this season in the Premier League.

The Portuguese’s versatility has been used to the maximum by Pep Guardiola this season, which has seen Silva often deployed as the false nine, the right-sided winger and a midfielder in City’s system.

Silva’s tally of seven goals in the league so far has seen an over-performance of 2.9, meaning he has scored almost three goals more than he should have managed by the quality of his chances.

Given that City are a hugely dominant side against every side in the Premier League, Silva’s fairly average underlying numbers will likely not prevent him from reaching double figures before the end of the season.

All stats used from Statsbomb via FBref, accurate up to February 7, 2022.