The Premier League run-in analysed: Man City v Liverpool

With only nine games remaining of the Premier League season and just one point separating Manchester City and Liverpool, we’ve taken a deep dive into both clubs to see who’s most likely to come out on top.

Manchester City currently sit top of the league on 70 points, with Liverpool now breathing down their necks on 69 points. 

We’ve seen both of these sides set records for unbelievably high points records in the past and this season looks like it will be no different. 

 

 

Points tally 

This season Man City have averaged 2.41 points per game, which would see them finish the season on 92 points if they continued on their current trajectory. 

In comparison, Liverpool have averaged 2.37 points per game, which would see them pick up 90 points over the course of a season.  

The title race is incredibly reminiscent of the 18/19 season when Man City pipped Liverpool to the title by one point. 

The highest points tally Man City can achieve this season is 97 points and Liverpool are able to achieve 96 points if they were to have a flawless run.  

You certainly wouldn’t put it past these two sides to achieve perfection either. Earlier in the season we saw Man City put together a 12 consecutive game winning streak and Liverpool have now won all nine of their last matches. 

 

The run-in 

When it comes to the fixture run in, it is Manchester City who hold an advantage over Liverpool with a slightly easier run from now until the end of the season.  

Excluding the game against Liverpool at the Etihad, the average league placing of Man City’s remaining fixtures is 13th, compared to Liverpool’s average opponent placing of 11th.  

Other than Liverpool, Man City only play West Ham, Aston Villa and Wolves from the top half of the Premier League. 

Liverpool on the other hand still need to travel to the Etihad, as well as playing Man United, Spurs, Wolves and Aston Villa.  

What does play into Liverpool’s hands though is that three of their remaining five games against teams in the top half of the table are at Anfield.  

 

How the stats compare 

It’s amazing how close these sides rank in terms of their underlying numbers throughout the season and it’s clear to see how they are both in a league of their own. 

Liverpool lead the way for goals scored this season with 75 scored, compared to Man City’s 68.  

Despite Liverpool scoring more goals though, Man City have actually averaged a higher xG per 90 at 1.58 compared to Liverpool’s 1.53.  

This is a reflection of how clinical Liverpool have managed to be throughout the season. Mohamed Salah, Divock Origi and Fabinho have all been Liverpool’s biggest xG overperformers this season.  

Despite Kevin De Bruyne being the biggest xG overperformer in the whole of the Premier League, with an overperformance of 4.5 goals, Man City still fall behind Liverpool when it comes to finishing chances.  

Defensively however, it is Man City who have the edge over Liverpool. Pep Guardiola’s side currently have the best defensive record in the league having only conceded 18 goals so far. 

Although Liverpool aren’t far away from matching their defensive record, with them having only conceded 20 goals this season.  

 

Head-to-head record 

With the title race being on a knife edge this season, there’s every chance that it is decided when the two teams meet at the Etihad in April.  

The overall head-to-head record is massively in favour of Liverpool, but their recent meetings would suggest Man City might have the edge.  

Liverpool have only beaten Man City in one of their last eight meetings and they have not won at the Etihad in the Premier League since 2015. 

When it comes to Pep v Klopp their head-to-head records are astonishingly balanced too with nine wins for both managers as well as four draws.  

Everything points towards this title race going right down to the wire.