Who will win the five-team fight for fourth place in the Premier League?

There are seemingly five teams in the fight for the final Champions League spot, but do the stats suggest any of them are likely to pull clear or fall away?

West Ham, Arsenal, Manchester United, Tottenham and Wolves are currently separated by just six points in the battle for fourth spot and a place in next season's Champions League.

But is there one in a better position than the others? Maybe one who statistically doesn’t belong? Here's what the stats say.

West Ham United

West Ham currently occupy the fourth spot and have spent the most time in the top four, taking down both Chelsea and Liverpool above them too so far this season.

However, when matched up against their main competition, they are 1-3, only just beating Tottenham 1-0 earlier in the season.

It is the Hammers’ goal efficiency that will be key to them keeping their spot. Their 41 goals on the season is a massive six more than what the stats are suggesting for their expected goals. 

Not only is that far better than any others out of the five, but it is also second-best in the league, narrowly beaten by Chelsea by just 0.2.

Having played more games than the four teams directly beneath them, they will need to maintain that clinical streak if they are to finish fourth. 

Arsenal

Arsenal struck a potentially key blow in their bid to make the top four with a 1-0 win at Wolves on Thursday night, moving them to within a point of West Ham having played two games fewer.

They are certainly the team in form, with four wins, one draw and one loss from their past six games at the time of writing. 

The Gunners’ improved defence is often pointed out as the reason for their good performances, but that’s only half true. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in half of their 22 games, but they have made the second fewest tackles and clearances combined as a team, and have made the most mistakes that have led to a goal this season, with 11. 

It is those mistakes that could prove their undoing if they are unable to cut them out.

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham started off the season very well, winning their first three games, including an opening day victory over Manchester City, and they actually occupied top spot for a week.

Since then, though, things haven’t gone quite as well.

Three losses followed, with a loss to their biggest rivals, Arsenal, topping off the worst turnaround you could imagine. They sacked Nuno Espirito Santo and brought in Antonio Conte, and while things looked good at first, progress has stalled recently.

Spurs just simply haven’t been performing like the team we have come to know over the last five or so years. Usually by now, Harry Hane would be fighting or leading the Golden Boot race. Instead, he has only five goals on the year, 11 behind Mo Salah, and 3.9 down on his xG.

His scoring woes have been amplified by the whole team, whose -7.6 under-performance against their xG is the second worst in the league.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolverhampton are the underdogs in this fight, but they still warrant a mention. Defeat to Arsenal could prove costly, but at the time of writing they are still just six points off of the fourth spot. 

Wolves may not be the highest scoring team - they have only managed 19 goals in the campaign - but their 17 goals conceded is only bettered by Manchester City.

It may be a risk to back them, but it could pay off tremendously if it happens. And in the Premier League, it always could happen.