The 10 players with the highest xG in the Budesliga in 2022-23

The Bundesliga season is well underway, so we’ve decided to look at which players are likely to score the most goals in the German top flight this season, using expected goals as a clue.

Expected goals are a measure of how many chances any given player gets during games and how high quality those chances are.

Essentially, the highest the average xG per 90 minutes, the higher the probability that the player in question will score consistently. 

With all 18 teams in the Bundesliga having played seven games prior to the international break, it seems a good time to see which players are getting the best chances.

Here are the top 10 players in the Bundesliga by xG per 90 so far this season. Where players are tied on xG per 90, we’ve put the one who’s scored more goals higher.

10. Serge Gnabry - 0.53

A very well-known operator, there was some speculation about whether Gnabry would stay at Bayern for this season. But he eventually signed a new contract and committed his future to the Bavarian club.

Things haven’t started well for Bayern this season - they sit fifth with 12 points - but Gnabry is the first of four Bayern players in this top 10, which suggests the goals and results will come.

He has 0.53 xG per 90 for a total of 1.7 xG, which he’s converted into two actual goals. 

9. Patrik Schick - 0.54

After his spectacular effort for the Cezch Republica at Euro 2020, everyone knows Schick can score very, very low xG shots. But he can get in good shooting positions too.

The Bayer Leverkusen forward has 0.54 xG per 90, for a total of 3.7 xG. He’s only scored twice so far, but expect more to come.

8. Marcus Thuram - 0.56

Have we got to the point where Marcus is no longer ‘son of’? Seeing as he’s one of the most effective strikers in the Bundesliga, then probably, yes.

An xG of 3.9 in total, without having taken a single penalty, gives him 0.56 xG per 90.

Like Schick, he’s underperformed that slightly, with three goals so far.

7. Rafael Santos Borre - 0.59

The former River Plate man has not been hugely prolific since moving to Borussia Monchengladbach and has only got one goal so far this season.

But he did score the all-important equaliser in Gladbach’s victorious Europa League final last season and his numbers of 0.59 xG suggest he’s getting in positions that will see him score more in future. 

If he started a few more games it’d probably help.

6. Thomas Muller - 0.59

Muller is another of the Bayern contingent and not a surprise name on this list.

The only surprise is that with a total xG of 3.3 - or 0.59 expected goals per 90 minutes - Muller has only converted once.

5. Michael Gregoritsch - 0.59

Freiburg’s Austrian attacking midfielder has three goals from the same xG per 90 as Muller and has helped his team into a surprise third place at this stage of the season, behind only Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund.

4. Leroy Sane - 0.61

Like team-mate Muller, Sane has underperformed his xG, scoring twice from a total xG of 3.1 across his seven appearances.

3. Sadio Mane - 0.66

The last of the four Bayern players, Mane got off to a relatively good start in Bavaria, despite the pressure that comes with the great big Robert Lewandowski-shaped hole he’s attempting to fill.

Three goals so far is a decent return and though he’s not found the net since August 21, an xG per 90 of 0.66 suggests more will come at some point.

2. Niclas Fullkrug - 0.66

One of the less heralded names in this top 10, Fullkrug has scored an impressive five goals in seven so far this season, carrying on his form from last season and helping newly-promoted Werder Bremen to mid-table comfort at this point in the campaign.

1. Andrej Kramaric - 0.69 

Hoffenheim round out the Bundesliga top four at this point and their Croatian striker Kramaric has helped them there with two goals.

Expect more when he gets back from international duty though - his xG of 00.69 per 90 is the best in the German top tier.