Previewing the UEFA Conference League final

It's the inaugural UEFA Conference League final this week. Here's how the two teams match up:

When the UEFA Conference League was first announced, it was treated as something of a joke, amongst many European football fans, particularly those who would be aiming for the bigger European prizes. However, it would be completely incorrect to say that the majority of teams that have competed in the competition have treated it anything other than seriously.

The pictures of an emotional Jose Mourinho  - a man who has won every European trophy available to him - celebrating with his staff as Roma defeated Leicester City to make the final should demonstrate how important it’s been to these teams. For many, it has been their best chance of winning a trophy, whilst teams like Norway’s Bodo/Glimt have been able to test themselves against stronger opponents and have done so admirably. 

Now the final is set to be between two historic clubs in Roma and Feyenoord. Both sides have had excellent runs to the final and had to defeat top five league opponents in the semi-finals in order to progress, in the shape of Leicester and Marseille. Here’s how the two teams compare via the stats: 

 

Goals Scored

Feyenoord edge out Roma by a single goal, as the Dutch side have scored 28 to Roma’s 27. Arne Slot’s side have two of the competition’s top five goalscorers, with Cyril Dessers (10) and Luis Sinisterra (6), whilst Roma have the second top scorer in Tammy Abraham (9). 

 

Shots

Interestingly, Roma have been much more clinical with their shots as they have scored 15 goals from 156 shots, whilst Feyenoord have taken 174. Players like Sinisterra do tend to take a lot of long shots, which has contributed to this but it might suggest that Feynoord will be more dangerous and have more efforts in the game but Roma could snatch the victory with one good chance. 

 

Goals Conceded

At the other end of the pitch, it is a dead heat. Both sides have conceded just 15 goals over the entirety of the tournament. This averages out as 1.25 goals per game across the 12 games they have each played. 

It is surprising to see the two closely matched in terms of goals scored and conceded, considering that Feyenoord have a reputation for being much more expansive in attack and more open defensively, compared to Mourinho’s pragmatic approach of recent seasons. 

 

Possession

That difference in style is borne out more in the possession stats. Feyenoord average 52%, whilst Roma tend to have a minority of possession with 45.25%. Given that the Italian side have almost always been favourites in their games throughout the tournament, this shows how Mourinho has made it a strategy to freely give up the ball, in order to try and hit opponents on the counter. 

 

Ball Recoveries

This is illustrated further by how aggressively the two sides look to win the ball back. Given that Roma are in possession of the ball less often, one would expect they would make more recoveries to win it back. However, as they are happy to let their opponents have possession until the right moment to spring a counter-attack, they actually make fewer ball recoveries than their fellow finalists, as Feyenoord have recovered the ball 464 times to Roma’s 450. 

 

Who will win The trophy?

iven Roma are a team from a stronger league than Feyenoord, and due to the vast experience of Mourinho in major finals, it seems safe to say that the Italians will go into the final as the favourites. 

Roma will have to be careful though. Whilst they might be happy to let their opponents have the ball, players like Orkun Kokcu, Sinisterra and Dessers will be dangerous customers and if they are given a lot of opportunities to take the ball in dangerous areas, they will be likely to punish them. 

Whichever side comes out the victor, the Conference League has been a success in its first season. The tournament delivering two high-caliber finalists, whilst giving opportunities to lesser teams to go deep in the tournament, is exactly how UEFA would have hoped it would have turned out. Now they will hope that the final will deliver with a high-quality match.