The PPG every Premier League relegation contender needs to survive

The 10-year average points total needed for survival in the Premier League is 35 points. We look at the points per game each team near the bottom of the table needs to achieve to hit that mark.

The points tally which is needed to survive changes every year. Last season, for example, a team only needed 29 points to stay up – the lowest tally of the last decade.

It could well be similarly low this season, but in contrast, in 2010-11 you would have needed 40 points to beat the drop. Something that Birmingham and Blackpool found out the hard way as they were both relegated on 39 points.

Using the 10-year average of 35 points as the threshold for survival, we’ve taken a deeper look into each of the current relegation favourites and worked out their chances for survival.

Burnley

Sean Dyche’s side are probably the wildcard of the relegation zone at the moment, due to them having several games in hand on the teams above them. They have significantly the best defensive record of the sides in the relegation picture, having only conceded 27 goals. However, their major problems have come in the final third.

Burnley are one of only three sides in the Premier League to have averaged less than a goal per game, a particularly worrying trend considering they recently sold Chris Wood who outscored any other player at the club since his arrival.

With 20 games left for Burnley, they will need to average 1.15 PPG from now on to reach the 10-year average of 35 points for survival. Throughout the whole of last season, Burnley averaged 1.03 PPG and so they will need to significantly improve upon this if they don’t want to be playing Championship football next season.

Watford

The Hornets' problems have come at the other end of the pitch, with them conceding two goals per game on average. The recent appointment of Roy Hodgson does give them a glimmer of hope that things might improve in this area, though. Throughout his time with Crystal Palace, they conceded 1.5 goals per game, which would be a significant improvement if he can get Watford closer to this number.

With 18 games left for Watford, they will need to average 1.16 PPG from now on in order to reach 35 points. So far this season Watford have picked up just 0.7 PPG, which highlights the magnitude of the job Hodgson now has on his hands.

Newcastle United

With their new financial muscle, many will be predicting a stronger end to the season for Eddie Howe’s side, but they still have it all to do. Their second win of the season against Leeds came as a huge boost to their survival chances.

Newcastle will need to pick up 1.17 PPG in order to reach the 35-point mark at the end of the season. Since Eddie Howe’s arrival at the club, Newcastle have picked up 1 PPG and so they will be hoping that their January additions will be enough to lift that number to at least 1.17.

Norwich City

Norwich have the worrying combination of the least goals scored and the most goals conceded, but they do currently sit above the relegation zone. Dean Smith has no doubt had an influence on their recent upturn in form and Norwich fans will be hoping that it’s not short-lived.

Since his arrival at Carrow Road, Norwich have picked up 1 PPG, the same as Eddie Howe at Newcastle in the same number of matches. To reach the 35-point mark, Norwich will need to pick up 1.18 PPG – a higher number than any of the other sides due to them playing more matches so far.

Everton

Everton are a bit of an outlier in this year's relegation debate as not many people would have fancied them to be quite this low at the start of the season, but here we are. They will hope they have got their latest managerial appointment right as Frank Lampard needs to put an end to their recent winless run.

The Toffees will need to pick up 0.84 PPG to ensure they reach the 35-point mark, although Everton’s standards will be much higher than just about scraping survival. Under Rafa Benitez, Everton picked up 1 PPG, a poor overall return, but they should have enough to creep away from the bottom three.

Leeds United

The last of the sides near the bottom to look into is Leeds, who currently sit seven points above the relegation zone.

Last season Marcelo Bielsa’s side finished ninth in their first season back in the Premier League, but due to an accumulation of injuries, they’ve slid down the league this season.

To accumulate 35 points Leeds will only need to pick up 0.76 PPG from now on, a total which you would expect them to achieve with relative ease.