The stats behind Newcastle's improvement in 2022

Newcastle looked to be destined to go down this season at the end of 2021. Even with the new owners and Eddie Howe in charge, things weren't looking great. But they look a whole lot better now...

Newcastle have had a rather unsettled season before the new year. However, since the start of 2022, they have started to find themselves.

Backed by their new owners, coach and some new signings, Newcastle are prepared to fight for survival.

 

The prelude before the success

Newcastle was in a deep pit of despair at the end of 2021. They were second from the bottom with only 11 points, one point off of Norwich in 20th. They had only one win in their 19 games played, and they never really looked like picking up another win. They were destined for relegation.

The big takeover that made them the richest club in the world happened in October. Suddenly, Newcastle was the talk of the league because there was a possibility that they would become a new powerhouse in the league.

But before that could happen, they need to get better. A lot better. They weren’t going to be challenging for the league title if they weren’t in the Premier League, and relegation was the direction they were heading in.

Improvements had to be made, so out went Steve Bruce and some of the coaching staff, and in came Eddie Howe and his team. It was the start but was nowhere near enough. He got them their first win of the season, but there were still some ways to go.

Eventually, the January transfer window came around. There had been talks of Newcastle making multiple big purchases, now it was time to see if that was all talk.

They made five signings throughout the month. Chris Wood, Bruno Guimaraes, Keiran Trippier, Matt Targett and Dan Burn. It wasn’t the high-level signings that were expected, but they would help. 

And help they did.

In 2022, Newcastle have been a much better side, vastly improved and playing the best football that they have played all season. Hope for survival is very much there.

While they are only six games into the year, and with 13 games left for them to play, they are by no means safe. But they are in a much better place than they were.

 

The keys to their success

It's clear to see that the signings they brought in have been instrumental to them playing better. Bruno Guimaraes is new to the Premier League. The Brazilian signed from Olympique Lyon, so he’s better off learning the league by coming off the bench, as he has been doing.

Kieran Trippier finds himself in a new role as a leader within the team. He has captained them once already, in a 1-0 win over Aston Villa in which he scored the goal for the win. His influence on the team no doubt is encouraging the rest of the squad.

Dan Burn, Matt Targett have all also found their way into the starting lineup since joining. But it’s Chris Wood that has probably had the biggest impact on the way Newcastle now play.

In the first half of the season, they had tried seven different formations. Some were variations of a previous one, others completely different. They had no identity and no proper style of play.

Ever since the first game of 2022, though, Eddie Howe has them playing in a 4-3-3 formation. The idea is that they have their rapid quick wingers in Allan Saint-Maximin and Ryan Fraser, and now with Wood in the middle, they had a gameplan of getting the ball in the air to him in the box. And it's obviously been working, as they have now gone unbeaten in their six games played.

 

The stats behind their success

Newcastle have now played six games in the league in 2022 and are yet to be defeated. They have four wins and two draws in that time, a huge turnaround on their record compared to the first half of the season, which saw them pick up only one win, whilst drawing eight and losing nine.

Scoring was never a huge issue for them. They were and still are on par with most of the other sides that are hovering above the relegation zone. The real issue was keeping the ball out of their own net.

Newcastle scored 19 goals and conceded 42 in the first half of the season, giving them a dismal -23 goal difference. 

But after turning things around, they currently have a positive scoring record. The Magpies have scored nine goals while only conceding 3, giving them a +6 goal difference in 2022, and thus a now improved -17 goal difference on the season. It’s not a huge improvement, but it is an improvement, nonetheless.

As for their expected goals, that has improved, too. In the six games in 2022, they have had an 8.6 xG. So, they slightly exceed that, depending on how you look at it (some will round up or down to the nearest whole goal).

As for the average xG per game, in the six games in 2022 compared to the first 19 games, again, Newcastle is up so far.

In these six games so far, they average 1.4 xG per game. In the first half of the season, they averaged 0.9 xG per game.

And their stat to display their turnaround success is possession. Because in the first half of the season, they struggled with having a good amount of time on the ball.

They only had four games with over 50% possession, and it averaged out to 38% possession per game.

In 2022, they have almost already caught and surpassed their total from before. They have had three games with over 50% possession already, with a better-looking average of 47% possession per game now.

 

The future of their success

Newcastle is on an upward trend. They are one of the most in-form teams in the league right now, one of only two teams who are unbeaten in the league so far in 2022, - along with Liverpool - and they now find themselves in 14th place with a breathable four points gap to the relegation zone.

There are still some ways to go. They have 13 games left to play this season, so the chances of them maintaining this great run of form is low. However, as long as they can do as well as they possibly can while on this hot run, they should be able to survive the drop.