Midweek Tips: Nations League action

The Nations League has been the order play for the last week, having kicked off on the first of the month. Matchday one is gone, now we are looking toward matchday two and giving you our best picks for three of the weeks games, including Germany vs England, Croatia vs France, and Belgium vs Poland.

Banker 

England made a disastrous start to their UEFA Nations League campaign as they fell to a 1-0 defeat against Hungary. England’s lack of freshness was exposed amid a surreal atmosphere on Saturday, with the likes of Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold in particular struggling to find their best form after a marathon domestic season spent battling for silverware on four fronts.  

It was the first time the Three Lions have lost a game since their Euro 2020 final loss to Italy, and they’ll need to bounce back quickly as they travel to Munich on Tuesday to face Germany. 

The Germans drew 1-1 with Italy and gave a very good account of themselves in Bologna. A goal from Joshua Kimmich cancelled out Lorenzo Pellegrini’s opener on Saturday night, and in truth Germany looked comfortable for the most part as they dominated possession against Roberto Mancini’s men. 

Hansi Flick prefers Germany to play 4-2-3-1 and it is clearly working with Saturday’s draw meaning Die Mannschaft have won eight and drawn two of their games since Flick took over from Joachim Low after last summer's European Championships. 

Germany have been priced up at 11/8 for the win in the 1x2 market, and that price looks decent when you consider how England toiled in Budapest. It was one of the worst performances of the Gareth Southgate era, and came as something of a shock. Southgate’s team were strangely passive all over the park and struggled to create anything of note in the final third. 

Dominik Szoboszlai’s 66th minute penalty was unquestionably soft, but proved enough for Hungary to register their first win over England in 60 years. New boys James Justin and Jarrod Bowen failed to impress, but just as worrying for England fans was how far off the pace established stars like Harry Kane and Mason Mount also looked. There is an obvious disconnect between the front line and the rest of the team and that will have to be addressed as the World Cup gets closer. 

England have only lost one of their last four matches against Germany. However, this German side look to be really evolving under Flick and with home advantage look a decent punt at 11/8 on Tuesday. 

Banker: Germany to beat England at 11/8 (Betfair/Hills/Skybet) 

  

Value 

Croatia and France face each other on Monday night and both teams will have a point to prove having lost their respective Nations League openers. 

Andreas Cornelius came off the bench to score twice as Denmark fought back to beat holders France 2-1 at the Stade de France on Friday night. Karim Benzema continued his red-hot form in 2022 by scoring for Les Bleus, who were ultimately sunk by Cornelius’ stunning double. 

Croatia lost 3-0 at home to Austria, and they have not enjoyed a great 2022 so far after previously being held by Slovenia and then scraping a pretty unconvincing 2-1 win over Bulgaria. 

Austria made a sensational start to the Ralf Rangnick era on Friday night but in truth Croatia were poor, particularly in a chaotic second half. The Vatreni have now conceded two or more goals in eight of their last nine Nations League matches, and that’s an ominous stat with France up next. 

Croatia have never beaten France – they have lost six times and had two draws – but one saving grace is the news that Kylian Mbappe probably won't feature due to a knee injury. 

France start as favourites in Split, but Croatia boss Zlatko Dalic will demand a reaction from his players and with this in mind the draw looks a big runner at 12/5. 

Value: Croatia and France to draw at 12/5 (Betvictor/Betfair/Betfred) 

  

First Goal Flutter 

Belgium’s opening group A4 encounter ended in disaster after an emphatic 4-1 defeat by the Netherlands in Brussels. 

Belgium were the bookies favourites before kick-off with the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Axel Witsel all named in a starting XI that looked strong. However, they were no match for the Dutch and will be desperate to get their Nations League campaign back on track by beating Poland on Wednesday. 

Poland were nervy 2-1 winners over Wales in their first Nations League match, with Robert Lewandowski often looking off the pace. Lewandowski is set to leave Bayern Munich in the summer, and the Bundesliga goal machine will obviously be the man Belgium fear he most on Wednesday. 

Yet while De Bruyne and his Red Devils colleagues were well off the pace themselves on Friday the Manchester City midfielder remains a Rolls Royce of a player and looks a big price at 5/1 to open the scoring against the Poles.  

Pep Guardiola has hailed De Bruyne as the best in the world in his position, and he managed 20 goals in 50 appearances in the 2021/22 season for club and country. De Bruyne has established himself as a talisman for both his club and his country, and if he is in the mood on Wednesday 5/1 could be huge. 

First Goal Flutter: De Bruyne to score first at 5/1 (Paddy Power)