Midweek Tips: Champions League QF and Premier League catchup picks

The first leg of the Champions League Quarter-Finals kicks off this week, and we've got the picks for Real Madrid vs Chelsea, Villareal vs Bayern, and Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid. And there's also an added Premier League catchup fixture thrown in there, too, with Burnley taking on Everton.

Chelsea suffered a shock 4-1 home defeat to Brentford at the weekend and even the most optimistic Blues fan would concede that is not great preparation for a Champions League quarter-final first leg against Real Madrid.

Chelsea face Los Blancos on Wednesday at Stamford Bridge and the bookies have chalked Thomas Tuchel’s men up as 11/10 favourites to win in 90 minutes. 

However, Tuchel struggled to explain away that mauling against Brentford, admitting in the aftermath that “Nobody saw it coming."

Chelsea fans may have been shocked by that Bees defeat but will be buoyed by recent history. Almost a year ago to the day the Blues were stunned 5-2 at home to West Brom, but then went on a magical run in Europe. Porto were beaten. Real Madrid too. And then against Manchester City in Porto, a strike from Kai Havertz saw the Blues crowned champions of Europe for a second time.

 N'Golo Kante was the driving force behind that success over Real Madrid last year, picking up Man-of-the Match awards in both legs as Chelsea drew 1-1 at the Bernabeu before winning 2-0 at home.

Carlo Ancelotti will have to keep Kante quiet on Wednesday but his Real Madrid side are full of confidence themselves and don’t be shocked if they serve it up to Chelsea here.

The Spanish giants are cruising towards yet another La Liga title and claimed a 2-1 win at Celta Vigo on Saturday. After his brace at the weekend, this is now the best goalscoring season of Karim Benzema’s career. The France international's double at the Estadio de Balaidos means he has now weighed in with 34 goals in all competitions for Ancelotti’s men.

It would not be a total shock to see Madrid win in west London (they are a standout 14/5 to do just that with Unibet) but they’ve showed enough in recent weeks to suggest that 21/20 about them reaching the semi-finals at Chelsea’s expense should be jumped on.

 

The Nap – Real Madrid to qualify at 21/20 (Betfair/Hills/Paddy Power/888 Sport)

 

There’s an absolutely huge game at the bottom of the Premier League on Wednesday as Burnley host Everton.

The Clarets remain rooted in the bottom three and didn’t have a shot on target until 75 minutes of Saturday’s 2-0 loss to Manchester City. No team have scored fewer goals at home than Burnley this season, but Sean Dyche’s men may just fancy their chances against the Toffees, who are toiling themselves.

Indeed, Everton have claimed fewer away points (6) than any other side in the Premier League this season, and Sunday’s 2-1 reverse against West Ham means they are now winless in 12 matches on the road.

Relegation would be a catastrophe for Everton, and that fact was underlined by the recent publication of their company accounts for the 2020/21 season. The Merseyside giants lost £120.9million in the year, which equates to an eye-watering £331,232.87 per day. Their wage bill is on the high side even by Premier League standards so a drop into the Championship does not bear thinking about.

Everton are four points better off than Burnley as things stand, so Frank Lampard’s first target will be to avoid defeat at Turf Moor. It won’t be easy though with such a pathetic away record and the shout here is backing Burnley to win a tight one. 

 

Value Tip – Burnley to win and Under 2.5 goals at 4/1 (Paddy Power)

 

Atletico Madrid face Champions League favourites Manchester City on Tuesday and the Spanish giants are big underdogs to progress despite their excellent recent form.

Los Rojiblancos geared up for their trip to the Etihad Stadium in style at the weekend with a 4-1 home success over Alaves. That was their sixth win on the spin and the Spanish champions are finally showing some consistency after an erratic season.

The tie pips Diego Simeone against Pep Guardiola once again and while the Argentine certainly does not fear Pep, he does respect him.  Manchester City are a fantastic side, pleasing on the eye and can simply blow teams away when in the mood.

However, they have seen their lead in the Premier League reduced from 14 points in January to just a solitary point at time of writing, which underlines the fact that their form so far in 2022 has not been mega consistent.

Joao Felix is a prodigious talent who admittedly took his time to find his feet in Madrid after a €126 million (£113 million) transfer. However, the 22-year-old has scored some crucial goals in Europe already this season and might be a tad over-priced at 14/1 to score first in Manchester.

The Citizens should have most of the possession but they are not the best side in the air defensively, and for a player who only stands at 5ft 11in the Portuguese is deceptively good in the air.

If Atletico can weather the inevitable early storm and get a foothold in this game, Felix could be the man to unlock this City defence. Some firms are as short as 9/1 about him scoring first, so Betfair and Paddy Power’s current quote of 14s looks decent.

 

First Goal Flutter – Joao Felix to score first at 14/1 (Betfair/Paddy Power)

 

Europa League holders Villarreal are in the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time since 2009, and odds of 9/2 about them beating Bayern Munich this week look a little big.

Bayern are third favourites behind Manchester City and Liverpool to win the Champions League at around the 3/1 mark as they have Europe's most feared striker in their ranks in Robert Lewandowski, who has chipped in with 45 goals in just 37 appearances this term.

A source of real hope for Villarreal though is the fact Bayern were outplayed for much of their last 16 first leg against Salzburg. Granted they won the return leg 7-1 – with Lewandowski grabbing a hat-trick - but in that first game they were heading for defeat in Austria before Kingsley Coman rescued them. 

Villarreal are only seventh in La Liga, but tend to save their best form for Europe and scored three late goals to move into the last eight at the expense of Juventus just a few short weeks ago. Nobody expected that result, and the Yellow Submarine will see this tie against the Bavarian giants as something of a free hit.

They have shown what they are capable of when written off by the bookies already this season, and 9/2 to win at the Estadio de la Ceramica certainly looks worth a small interest.   

 

The Euro Banker – Villarreal to win in 90 minutes at 9/2 (General)