Midweek tips: Champions League and Europa League semi-finals

The Champions League returns in midweek as Man City face Real Madrid and Liverpool go up against Villarreal, we've previewed all the action as well as looking into some of the other ties.

The Nap

It’s England v Spain in the Champions League as this competition reaches the semi-final stage this week. Liverpool are big favourites – they are actually no bigger than 1/5 to qualify – against Villarreal but the layers could be underrating The Yellow Submarine, who have knocked out European powerhouses Juventus and Bayern Munich in successive rounds.

Yellow Submarine boss Unai Emery has proven himself as a Grandmaster of European football with two Europa League crowns already to his name. He is now plotting the downfall of Liverpool, with his side as big as 12/1 to win on Merseyside.

The Spanish side warmed up for Wednesday with a 2-0 win over Valencia at the weekend, and they will travel to England with genuine belief.

Regardless of what the bookies are saying, Jurgen Klopp is under no illusions. "It’s going to be really, really difficult against Villarreal," he said. "But it’s the semi-final of the Champions League – if it wasn't difficult there would be something wrong."

In 2016, the teams met in the UEFA Europa League semi-finals, with Villarreal winning the first leg 1-0 in Spain before the Reds turned on the afterburners at Anfield to cruise to a 3-0 success.

The Reds remain in the hunt for an unprecedented quadruple of course, and are 6/5 favourites in the outright Champions League betting at this point just ahead of Manchester City.

They made it 14 Premier League games unbeaten with victory over Everton in Sunday's Merseyside derby, and should be trusted to do what Juventus and Bayern Munich couldn’t, and that’s beat Villarreal at home.

You can get 6/5 that Liverpool score more than two goals at Anfield, and with their options in attack that looks like a bet. Whether it’s Mo Salah forging shooting opportunities with a drop of the shoulder or a feint, or Luis Diaz bringing down crosses with a Rabona, this side will always score goals and in front of a packed house have the players to make a statement here and get one foot into the final.

The Nap – Total Home Goals Over 2.5 at 6/5 (Betfair)

 

Value Tip 

Pep Guardiola has a fine record as a manager against Real Madrid, and will be confident of guiding them past the Spanish giants and into the Champions League final in Paris.

The first leg of their semi takes place at the Etihad on Tuesday, and the Citizens are no bigger than 1/2 to win in 90 minutes. They warmed up for this with a facile 5-1 win over Watford at the weekend, and it should be a fascinating battle in Manchester.

Karim Benzema is having the season of his life at Real Madrid, scoring 41 goals including Champions League hat-tricks against PSG and Chelsea. The Frenchman needs two goals to overhaul Robert Lewandowski and top the Champions League top scorer charts, and he is averaging a goal every 1.31 minutes in the competition this season.

If City can keep Benzema quiet they will have a real chance, and they will be confident having not conceded in four knockout games in the Champions League this season.

Man City talisman Kevin De Bruyne could be the man to take this game by the scruff of the neck. He has managed four goals and four assists in his last six Premier League appearances, and looks a big

price at 7/1 to score first. His awareness and vision is a joy to behold, and Los Blancos may not be able to cope with the Belgian and those surging runs from midfield.

Value Tip – De Bruyne to score first at 7/1 (Betfair/Paddy Power)

 

First Goal Flutter

Manchester United are 9/4 shots to beat Chelsea at Old Trafford on Thursday and I don’t think there will be a queue of punters lining up to back them at said odds.

When Erik ten Hag starts his rebuild, it has to start from the back, as they are an utter shambles defensively at the moment. The Red Devils’ hopes of securing a Champions League place evaporated in a haze of basic defensive errors at the Emirates on Saturday, and they have now shipped 51 goals in the Premier League this season. That is more than Manchester City and Liverpool combined and highlights the size of the task that awaits Ten Hag.

The only bright spot is the form of Cristiano Ronaldo. He scored goal number 16 of the season and the 100th of his Premier League career at the weekend, and his movement in north London at times belied his 37 years.

Chelsea are nailed on to finish in the top four now and qualify for the Champions League. If they are not fully switched on for this Ronaldo could pounce and the Portuguese legend looks a decent price at 4/1 to score first.

First Goal Flutter – Ronaldo to score first at 4/1 (Betfair/Betway/Boylesports/Paddy Power)

 

The Euro Banker

West Ham are facing a defensive injury crisis as they gear up for their Europa League semi-final against Eintracht Frankfurt this Thursday.

The Hammers are already without Kurt Zouma and Angelo Ogbonna, while Issa Diop could miss the rest of the season with an ankle injury. It’s not ideal prep for David Moyes, and the bookies may be under-estimating the Germans, who knocked out Barcelona in the last round after winning 3-2 in the Camp Nou.

The atmosphere should be lively at the London Stadium. Frankfurt had more than 30,000 supporters in Catalonia for their quarter-final against Barca, with the majority buying tickets off home fans and sitting among the Spaniards. They have an official allocation of 5,000 for this one, and those who travel could witness something special against a depleted West Ham rear-guard, with the away win worth nibbling at 3/1.

The Euro Banker – Eintracht Frankfurt to beat West Ham at 3/1 (Betfred/Betfair/Paddy Power)