Derek Bilton
Midweek tips: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United and table-toppers Fulham
Two solid Champions League picks, one for the Europa League action and Championship table-toppers Fulham get a nod for this week's midweek tips.
The Nap
Atletico Madrid fell to a shock home defeat against La Liga basement club Levante last week as their difficult season seemingly hit rock bottom. Make no mistake, Diego Simeone is under huge pressure due to Atleti being unrecognisable from the fearless, swashbuckling team of 2020/21 who won the Spanish title in fine style.
Prior to the weekend just gone Simeone’s side had won just eight of their last 23 matches across all competitions. Moreover, to underline just how badly Atletico’s title defence has gone awry, they have already conceded more goals this term than in any of Simeone’s other 11 seasons in charge, and there are 14 games still to play.
Encouragement then for Manchester United, who travel to the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium on Wednesday for the first leg of an intriguing Champions League last 16 clash.
Ralf Rangnick’s side have been excellent in Europe so far, winning Group F by taking 11 points from their six matches. The group was not a freebie either with Villarreal, Atalanta and Young Boys finishing below them.
Atletico Madrid finished second to Liverpool and qualified despite only taking seven points from six matches. They have some real quality in their squad with the likes of Antoine Griezmann, Luis Suarez, Angel Correa, and Joao Felix, but collectively they have been so poor this season and I’m not sure they should be favourites here (they are 11/8 shots for the win in the 1x2 betting with several firms).
11 of Manchester United’s last 14 away matches have featured goals at both ends and there is nothing in either club’s recent form to suggest defences will dominate in Spain. Both teams to score is a shade under even money and looks a lock under the circumstances.
The Nap – Both teams to score at 19/20 (bet365)
Value Tip
Ajax’s recent form has been ominous, with the Amsterdam giants regaining top spot in the Eredivisie and reaching the semi-finals of the Dutch Cup. They travel to Portugal on Wednesday to duke it out with two-time European champions Benfica, with both of clubs eager to book a quarter-final place.
Benfica are not a bad side but are nine points behind FC Porto in the Primeira Liga title race and Ajax start this tie as rightful red-hot favourites.
Having slammed nine goals past Benfica's rivals (and reigning Primeira Liga champions) Sporting Lisbon in the group phase, Erik ten Hag's men should be full of confidence. One of the main reasons for this confidence is the form of their striker Sebastien Haller.
Haller hit 10 goals in six Champions League group matches, and he is averaging an eye-watering 1.84 goals per game in the competition so far this season. There was a fear the Africa Cup of Nations could disrupt his rhythm, but he has scored four goals in three matches since his return including a hat-trick against FC Twente.
Haller is reminiscent of David Trezeguet, a quick and powerful striker who can score goals with both feet. He is a 4/1 poke to score first at the Estadio da Luz and that looks a great shout for a man who has already plundered 27 goals this season.
Value Tip – Haller to score first at 4/1 (bet365)
First Goal Flutter
It's getting on for 30 years since Guy Whittingham notched an incredible 42 goals in a single season for Portsmouth, but Aleksandar Mitrovic could yet break his record for goals scored in a single campaign in England's second tier.
The irascible Whittingham bagged 42 goals for Pompey in a crazy 1992-93 season, but even that wasn’t enough to see Portsmouth promoted to the Premier League after they blew up in the play-offs.
Fulham, who are miles clear at the top of the Championship, seemingly have no such worries and start Wednesday’s home clash with Peterborough as piping hot favourites with the bookies.
Unsurprisingly, Mitrovic is also all the rage in the first goalscorer betting having hit 31 goals so far as the Cottagers look for an immediate return to the Premier League.
He’s a 9/4 shot to score first at Craven Cottage and that looks worth a bet given the big Serb is clearly head and shoulders above Championship level in terms of ability.
First Goal Flutter – Mitrovic to score first at 9/4 (bet365)
The Euro Banker
After that incredible 4-2 win in Germany, Rangers now have one foot in the Europa League Round of 16. They blitzed Borussia Dortmund in the first leg in Germany, a result and a performance that ranks among their absolute best European nights.
The Bears welcome Dortmund back to Ibrox on Thursday night for the second leg with a two-goal cushion, although crucially away goals no longer count. The abolition of away goals for 2021/22 is significant. Ties level after the second leg will go to extra time and a penalty shoot-out if required, irrespective of the number of away goals a team has scored. That suits Dortmund here, who nevertheless can expect a hot reception in Glasgow.
It was a stunning display from Giovanni van Bronckhorst's side, but the job is only half done and BVB have the quality to turn this tie on its head.
A stunned Marco Rose said after the first leg "Of course, this situation is difficult. We lost with a difference of two goals. There's no away goals anymore so that might be a little help."
If Dortmund score first and score early on Thursday, the tie will take on a completely different complexion. The German giants will need to be far better defensively but have the overall quality to battle back past the Gers and progress.
The Euro Banker – Borussia Dortmund to qualify for the next round at 21/10 (Paddy Power)
