Derek Bilton
Midweek tips: Arsenal's perfect start to continue, Firmino to score again
With a full round of Premier League fixtures coming in midweek, we have everything you need to know heading into the action.
The Nap
These are worrying times for fans of Aston Villa. Steven Gerrard has been backed in the transfer market but they have taken just 12 points from their last 15 matches. Their three defeats this season have come against teams Villa should be finishing above comfortably, and on analysis, each defeat has been fully deserved based on their performances.
They travel to Arsenal on Wednesday and it is quite easy to see the wheels coming off quickly unless Gerrard can get some kind of reaction from his side. Some supporters turned on Gerrard during Sunday’s home loss to West Ham, and he has been cut to 5/2 in the ‘Next Premier League Manager to leave post’ betting.
Arsenal were handed a reality check against Fulham but Gabriel's late winner on Saturday evening means it is four wins on the spin now for Mikel Arteta's men, who look worthy 10/21 favourites on Wednesday.
The players have clearly bought into Arteta’s progressive 2-3-5 formation, and while it was a grind a times against Fulham they created enough chances to win the game comfortably. They should prove too hot for Villa and backing the Gunners to cover a one-goal handicap looks the way to bet.
The Nap – Arsenal (-1) to beat Aston Villa at 13/10 (Betfair)
Value Tip
Put simply, Fulham look too big at 12/5 to beat Brighton at home on Tuesday. Marco Silva’s side have held Liverpool to a 2-2 draw, were an Aleksandar Mitrovic penalty miss away from beating Wolves away and have beaten local rivals Brentford during an impressive start to the season. They almost claimed a famous point at the Emirates on Saturday too. Five points from four matches isn’t the worst start in the world and they will be confident here playing in front of their own fans.
Brighton have been excellent themselves so far, claiming three wins and a draw to move up to the dizzy heights of fourth. However, they’ve never beaten the Cottagers in the Premier League and could struggle to keep the shackles on Mitrovic, who scored his 100th goal for Fulham at the weekend.
Adam Lallana faces a spell on the sidelines after missing the 1-0 victory against Leeds United, and he will be a big miss for Brighton in midfield. It should be a close, competitive game but 12/5 odds on Fulham look huge. Silva's men have shown quality, class and maturity so far and can claim another home win in west London.
Value Tip – Fulham to win at 12/5 (SBK)
First Goal Flutter
Liverpool produced a relentless display of swaggering, at times sensational attacking football that resulted in a 9-0 victory over Bournemouth at the weekend, a result that equalled the biggest victory in Premier League history.
Incredibly, the prolific Mo Salah was not among the scorers, with Roberto Firmino scoring twice and also registering three assists. It was vintage Firmino, and the Brazilian is bigger than 5/1 to score first against Newcastle United on Wednesday night.
At his best Firmino is unplayable and seems to have eyes in the back of his head given the awareness he has of where his teammates are on the pitch. Of Liverpool’s fabled front three in recent years, Firmino has continued to be the individual who goes under the radar. However, he is genuine world class, and a joy to watch when in the mood.
There had been some transfer chatter in the tabloids claiming the Reds were considering showing Firmino the door in exchange for Paris St-Germain and Argentina midfielder Leandro Parede. That looks unlikely to happen, certainly this week, in the wake of his five-star showing against the Cherries and he looks worth a punt to score first against the Magpies.
First Goal Flutter – Firmino to score first at 21/4 (Unibet)
The Euro Banker
Lazio have made a solid start to the season and look worth backing when they travel to Sampdoria on Wednesday. The Biancocelesti did the double over Sampdoria last season, and Maurizio Sarri's have taken seven points from three Serie A matches so far.
Felipe Anderson was excellent and Luis Alberto scored a pile driver as Lazio beat Inter Milan 3-1 on Friday night. Sarri commented on the team’s growing consistency and the need to stay focused after that win, and if they are going to be involved in the title race this season these are the type of games they need to be winning.
If they are to win at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium, they will need to keep the brilliant Abdelhamid Sabiri quiet. Sabiri mainly plays behind a central striker, but can also play in wide attacking areas and has pace and skill.
However, Lazio are pretty solid at the back, with Patric and Alessio Romagnoli having developed a great understanding. Sarri’s men are 10/11 to win, and that looks a fair price against a Sampdoria who can be extremely erratic and have picked up just one point from a possible nine so far.
