The Premier League gameweek 25 results by xG

Matchday 25 provided some good entertainment, with a couple of surprising score lines according to the xG numbers...

The headline match of Chelsea vs Arsenal was postponed due to Chelsea competing in the Club World Cup final, but there were still some notable games and important wins during Gameweek 25 of this Premier League season.

But were all of those wins deserved? Here's how the games should have finished according to the teams' expected goals tallies...

Norwich 0-4 Manchester City

The league leaders handled Norwich without any real trouble, winning the game 4-0. They went out with an almost full-strength side and controlled the game throughout, boasting 78% possession, 88% pass accuracy and managing the same number of shots on target (8) as Norwich had shots in total.

The game matched its expected goals for both sides, with Norwich predicted 0.5 xG, and Man City 4.4 xG.

Burnley 0-1 Liverpool

They may have won, but Liverpool didn’t exactly look to be a class above Burnley in their matchup. Possession was in their favour, as they had 67%, as well as 82% pass accuracy to Burnley’s 65%. But their shooting was far from clinical, at least icompared with what we’d normally come to expect from Liverpool. The Reds had a 33% shot accuracy, with just three of their shots hitting the target from 12 attempts.

Comparably, Burnley only had eight shots, but five of them were on target, giving them 63% shot accuracy. As such, the expected goals were quite close, but Liverpool still edged it with 1.6 to Burnley’s 0.8.

Manchester United 1-1 Southampton

Manchester United went into this game after enduring a disappointing 1-1 with Burnley in the midweek, while Southampton we’re still riding high on a fantastic 3-2 win at Tottenham in the midweek. But, overall, the game was very even. Both sides had periods where they were on top, but neither were able to properly stay over on the other as the match ended 1-1.

Man United’s xG was 2.1, and Southampton’s was 1.1. The Red Devils did technically have the ball in the back of the net twice, but both were rightfully ruled out for offside. So, in the end, United underperformed according to their xG. 

Tottenham 0-2 Wolves

A battle between two teams who are gunning for fourth this season, it was Tottenham who fell victim once again at home as Wolves won the day 2-0. The score only tells one story, though. Wolves got their goals early, but Spurs were the team on top for the majority of the game with 59% possession, 82% pass accuracy and more shots in total (18 to 12) with the same number on target (7).

Spurs had an xG of 1.6, while Wolves was in fact lower at 1.3. The goals and subsequent points then should have been shared, but unfortunately for Spurs, the stats don’t dictate the outcome.

Leicester City 2-2 West Ham

An exciting game with a surprising scoreline when looking at the stats. The sides came away with a point each, but Leicester had an xG of 1.3, while West Ham’s was only 0.7.

Leicester, of course, had a penalty, but West Ham did particularly well to score their two goals - and two extremely important ones at that in their effort to stay in the Champions League hunt.

Everton 3-0 Leeds United

Everton picked up a much-needed 3-0 victory over their relegation rivals Leeds United, giving Frank Lampard his first league win in charge. Leeds were fairly disappointing in the game, never actually challenging Jordan Pickford in the Toffees goal.

They finished with seven shots in total, with none of them hitting the target. Unsurprisingly, they had an xG of 0.3. Everton, on the other hand, had 10 shots on target from a total of 21 shots. They were peppering Leeds with shots, and an xG of only 2.1 felt quite low when it felt like they had aimbot on. Still, they exceeded it, which is always a positive.

Newcastle United 1-0 Aston Villa

Aston Villa may have enjoyed more of the ball, but it was the home side Newcastle who were better at getting their shots on target and ultimately came away as 1-0 winners.

But neither side were shooting fantastically. Newcastle had just two of their 10 shots on target, while Villa had more shots with 11 but only one which hit the target. As such, both sides had an xG of 0.4.

Watford 0-2 Brighton

Vicarage Road can sometimes be tricky to play at, but Brighton found no issues when dispatching Watford. They largely dominated the stats sheet too with 64% possession, 80% pass accuracy to Watford’s 69%, and 45% shot accuracy, with five of their 11 shots finding the target.

The home side only managed 11% (1-9). Better yet for the Seagulls, Brighton exceeded their 1.4 xG, while Watford were right on with theirs, which was 0.5 xG.

Brentford 0-0 Crystal Palace

A battle between two London sides that ended all square at 0-0. A fair scoreline for what seemed like a very even game when looking at the stats. Visiting side Palace had more possession, with 58%, and boasted 50% shots on target (3 from 6).

Brentford had only two of their nine shots on target, but they were obviously deemed as must-be goals as their xG was 1.5, compared to Palace’s 0.5 xG.