How the battle for Champions League football is looking

Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Manchester United, West Ham and Wolves are all looking to secure their places in Europe next season, with Champions League and Europa League and ECL spots all to play for.

The battle for Champions League football next season has taken multiple different shapes, with the teams embroiled with it fighting each other and stumbling over others outside of it.

With the season winding down, we've decided to take another look at the landscape of the battle for European competition football next season.

Some teams have been eliminated, some have swapped places. And now, there is even one extra spot possibly available.

Let's take a look at each team, involved before or not, and see how their chances of Champions League football is looking.

 

Chelsea

At one point earlier in the year, Chelsea were top of the table. But they dropped down as quickly as they made their way up and have been in third ever since. Before, they were never challenged for their place, always being far away enough from those behind.

But over the last month, their form has slipped. Since coming back from the last international break at the end of March, they have played six league games, with a record of two wins, one draw and three losses. That means from a possible 18 points, they have taken just seven.

As such, there third place is now in contention. Arsenal in fourth are only three points behind them, and Tottenham in fifth are just five points back. Manchester United are also eight points behind, but that's not too much of a worry.

There are factors in Chelsea's favour that will help them breathe easier. For a start, they have a far superior goal difference of +39, which is third best in the league. Spurs are second best from the teams involved in this fight, and their's is only +20, so nothing on Chelsea's.

The Blues also have a 1.94 points per match rate, which is unsurprisingly third best in the league as well. So with that rate and with four games left to play, they're looking at an extra 7.76 points, round up to eight, which takes them to 74, and that should see them safely in the Champions League next season.

 

Arsenal

Arsenal have made monumental improvements this season. After spending the money last summer, it has paid off beautifully for them as the find themselves in fourth at the moment with a real good shot at finishing there.

The lack of any European competition this season has surely helped them to keep them from other distractions, as West Ham boss David Moyes suggests, but at the end of the day, Arsenal are a team that belongs in Europe.

As mentioned before, they're just three points off of Chelsea so that third place is in their sites. But they are also only two points ahead of Spurs in fifth, so need to keep an eye on them and keep up the performances.

Last month went the same way as the start of the season for the Gunners; three straight losses at the start turned into three straight wins, a streak which they currently are still on. Those nine points put them back in the top four, but before they had dropped down out of it, so they know they need to keep it up if they want to keep their place.

Arsenal's goal difference is less than Spurs' - +13 for Arsenal, +20 for Spurs - but they have a superior points per match rate than them as it stands. The Gunners are running at 1.85 PPM, which means with four games left for them, they would pick up another 7.4 points, which rounding up or down to seven or eight, would take them to either 70 or 71 points. Not enough to pass Chelsea, but enough to stay ahead of Spurs and take fourth place.

 

Tottenham

Tottenham have had a mixed year this season. They started off strong with Nuno Espirito Santo as their new manager and were at the top of the table after three games. Then suddenly everything went downhill, Nuno was sacked, Antonio Conte was brought in, he did a bit better for a short time but then they went back to the same.

In the last two months or so, Spurs have picked things up and started producing the results we all know they are capable of, spearheaded by their duo of Harry Kane and Son Heung-min.

Now in fifth place, two points behind Arsenal, they know that with a string of good results, and with others falling their way, they could just find themselves in the Champions League again next season.

Europa League is pretty much guaranteed to them. They're nine points ahead of West Ham in seventh, so no matter what, with Spurs in fifth, they'll have some form of European football next year.

With a healthy +20 goal difference, should it come down to points, Spurs would have an advantage. For that, though, they will need the results of the others to go their way.

On 1.79 PPM and also with four games remaining, Spurs are on course to get 7.16 more points, finishing with 68 or 69 points, depending on if you round to seven or eight points from that rate. Either way, they will be short of Arsenal's total, so they will need them to slip up somewhere.

 

Manchester United

Manchester United are in probably the worst position for any team on this list, maybe even in the whole league. They are the only team to have played 36 games already, so they are two ahead of Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham. And for a team chasing something, that will make a big difference, but not for the good.

United were expected to be challenging for the league title this year, but they have been nowhere near that level of play far too often this season.

But their solid win over Brentford on Monday should be a good kick-starter for a strong end to the season. Cristiano Ronaldo looks to be in top form, his 18 goals this year being a big reason why they are even in this position now.

Even with form on their side, it might not be enough. They can get a maximum of six points to the end of the season, which would take them to 64 points. Arsenal would only need two points to eliminate United from Champions League contention.

So it's likely Europa League for them next year. With Liverpool and Chelsea facing off in the FA Cup final, that means their place in the Europa League would be passed on to the sixth-place finisher.

West Ham, in seventh, are six points behind United, but have three games left to play. The Red Devils ideally need to win their last two games. Only matching their rate of 1.61 PPM would put them at risk of West Ham taking their sixth place.

In that situation, they better hope the Hammers win the Europa League, otherwise it'll be Europa Conference league for the great Manchester United.

 

West Ham

Early in the season, West Ham were flying high. They beat Liverpool and Chelsea, put themselves as high as third at a time when the table was starting to take shape. They looked like real Champion League dark horses.

Unfortunately, they dropped off pretty heavily since then and now find themselves down in seventh in the table, which would be a Europa Conference League place.

But there is still one glimmer of hope for the Hammers. They are still in with a shout of winning the Europa League.

West Ham has had a brilliant run in the competition so far. They are now in the Semi-Finals, facing off against Eintracht Frankfurt from the German Bundesliga. They are down 2-1 heading into the second leg game, but the hopes of making it through to the final is still there.

Should they win the Europa League, regardless of where they finish, they would get Champions League football.

If not, though, they do have a chance of another Europa League appearance next season, albeit a slight one.

As mentioned in the Manchester United section, West Ham are six points behind the Red Devils and have three more games to play to the end of the season. Should they win all three and United stumble, they could find themselves with a sixth-place finish.

A big ask of the Irons, who average 1.49 PPM. Matching that would give them only 4.47 points, which either way you spin it, is not enough. A consolation prize for them should that be the outcome is that they would still get into the Europa Conference League, which is at least something.

 

Wolves

Finally, we have Wolves. They were considered to be in this fight for a while because they were hanging on before. But since then, they have really fallen off to the point where they will have no European competition football next season as it stands. 

Wolves are in eighth place, which even with all the rules of places being handed down for one reason or another (check out Sky Sports' explainer article for that), they would not get a place in any competition next year.

So Wolves need to climb. With four games remaining, they could mathematically still finish in sixth place - fifth if you consider them overcoming Spurs' +20 GD, which is a big ask, since Wolves only have a +1 GD, so would need 12 goals to go ahead, or three a game without conceding. But that's all if the others ahead somehow lose all their remaining games. 

Europa League looks out of reach for them. What about ECL? They're currently three points behind West Ham and would need that seventh place to get it. They have four games to play to West Ham's three, so it is possible.

But like mentioned before, Wolves only have a +1 GD while West Ham have a +7 GD. They'd need to have some high-scoring wins to be in with a shout, but that is unlikely since Wolves have a 0.88 goal per game rate this season.

 

Special mention: Leicester can also find themselves in the Europa League next season should they win the ECL. Their matchup with Roma stands at 1-1 going into the second leg, so there is a chance for them.