How Liverpool and Chelsea compare ahead of the FA Cup final

The 150th iteration of the FA Cup final takes place this weekend, as Liverpool and Chelsea face off for the famous trophy. Stats24 has assessed how the two sides compared ahead of the game.

Liverpool and Chelsea meet one another in the FA Cup final on Saturday, in what is a repeat fixture of the Carabao Cup final, back in February. Their previous final was an excellent one, with the final ending 0-0 after extra-time. However, it was anything but a boring 0-0, with disallowed goals and excellent chances providing great drama. Liverpool were eventually triumphant on penalties, as Kepa Arrizabalaga fired his spot-kick over the crossbar to give The Reds the 11-10 win. 

Going into the FA Cup final, the two teams are on contrasting runs of form, as Liverpool have won four and drawn two of their last six Premier League games, whilst Chelsea have lost two, drawn two, and won only two. With that in mind, Liverpool look to be the favourites going into the final but Stats24 have assessed how the two sides compare according to the stats: 

Goals 

When it comes to goal scoring, Liverpool are far superior. Their total of 89 league goals is only bettered by Manchester City's 94. Meanwhile, Chelsea have scored 73. This is still comfortably the third-highest total in the division but it is significantly lower than Jurgen Klopp's side. When normalised to a per 90 rate, this shows that Liverpool are averaging 2.47 goals per 90, compared to Chelsea's 2. 

There is a marked difference between the two side's top goal scorers as well, with Mohammed Salah picking up a total of 22 league goals for Liverpool, compared to Mason Mount's 11 for Chelsea. 

Expected goals

It's always important to assess expected goals when comparing two teams as it can tell us more about a team's performance levels than goals scored can. Expected goals measures the quality of chances a team is creating, whilst goals scored can mask that due to one player hitting a hot-streak in front of goal. 

In this regard, Chelsea still lag behind their rivals. Their expected goals per 90 value of 1.74 is comfortably bettered by Liverpool's 2.35. Notably, both sides are outscoring their expected goals but that is not particularly surprising, given the quality of finishers in the two teams. 

Goals against 

Again, the two sides are the second and third-best in the league when it comes to their defensive records. Liverpool have conceded the second-fewest goals with 24, whilst Chelsea have conceded 31. Summed to per 90, this means Liverpool have been conceding at a rate of 0.67 to the Blues 0.86. 

It's no surprise to see their defensive records being so strong as whilst Manchester City have the best defensive record in the league, many would argue that the best defenders in the division play at Anfield and Stamford Bridge, in Virgil Van Dijk and Thiago Silva. 

Expected goals against

Notably, the two are much closer matched in expected goals against. Liverpool still edge out their rivals but only by 0.92 per 90 to Chelsea's 0.97. This shows that both teams have been slightly fortunate to concede fewer goals than expected but they do have two of the strongest goalkeepers in the league, which will have played a large part in their opponents underachieving in front of goal against them. 

Possession

In terms of possession, both sides are fairly dominant. In Liverpool's case, this is something which Klopp has developed over time as in his early years as Liverpool manager he focussed more on pressing than controlling the ball. However, bringing in a player like Thiago Alcantara has helped Liverpool control games in the midfield. As such, only City's 68.2% possession is higher than Liverpool's 63.1.

Continuing the theme, Chelsea are next in line as they have the ball for 61.9% of the time. Midfielders like Jorginho and Mateo Kovacic are key in controlling the game for Chelsea and the potential loss of Kovacic to injury after a challenge from Daniel James in the match against Leeds on Wednesday night could affect their ability to hold the ball in the final. 

Pressing

In the modern game, pressing has become a vital part of both defending and in creating chances. Klopp is a known proponent of 'gegen pressing', where the idea is to win the ball back as quickly as possible after losing it, in order to create chances in transitional moments. 

Liverpool and Chelsea do not rank highly in terms of overall pressures per 90, due to the fact that they have the ball more often, meaning they won't be pressing as much as other teams that don't. However, when looking at pressures in the attacking third, Liverpool rank as the top team in the league, in front of Brighton and Leeds. 

Klopp's side post a figure of 43.8, with Chelsea in fourth on 39.4. Ranking so highly in this metric shows that the two sides see a high press as vital to their tactics. The FA Cup final will surely see both teams pushing high up during their opponent's build-up phase. They will be looking to force and capitalise on mistakes in order to create goal-scoring chances. 

So, Liverpool are favourites?

As Liverpool top all the metrics and given their form, it's hard to look past them as favourites for the FA Cup. However, the two sides are closely matched and as the Carabao Cup was so tightly contested, Thomas Tuchel will believe that his Chelsea side are fully capable of claiming the victory and the trophy.