Europe’s 'Big Five': The most likely clubs to be relegated

It’s usually the title race that catches people’s attention, but the relegation battles in Europe’s top five leagues are very exciting this season.

This article ranks the most likely teams to be relegated, based on a probability calculated based on the team’s offensive rating, defensive rating, and the likelihood of each side’s remaining results.

While some are doomed with an over 99% chance of relegation, many teams who are currently in danger still have a good chance of survival. Check out this guide to find out who.  

 

Premier League

The PL relegation battle is heating up and it’s still all to play for. Norwich in the most danger, with statistics suggesting they are doomed to be relegated, with an over 99% chance of going down.

The other two spots, however, are still in contention. Watford are the second most likely to drop, despite being a point ahead of Burnley, but still have a slight chance of survival, being just three points away from safety.

18th place is the tightest position, with Burnley, Everton, Leeds and even Brentford all in with a chance of going down.

Burnley are currently in 19th place but have two games in hand on Watford and three on Leeds and Brentford. Everton, who haven’t been relegated since 1951, are just three points from the drop zone, with difficult fixtures remaining.

Leeds and Brentford would have to drop a lot of points to be relegated, but it is not out of the question.

 

1. Norwich City

Played: 29

Points: 17

Form: LLLLL

Relegation Probability: >99%

2. Watford

Played: 29

Points: 22

Form: WLLDL

Relegation Probability: 83%

3. Burnley

Played: 27

Points: 21

Form: LLLDW

Relegation Probability: 51%

4. Everton

Played: 27

Points: 25

Form: WLLLL

Relegation Probability: 32%

5. Leeds United

Played: 30

Points: 29

Form: WWLLL

Relegation Probability: 23%

 

Spanish La Liga

La Liga also has five or even six teams still in with a chance of relegation. Levante is the most likely to go down and being eight points away from safety, it seems unlikely they will escape danger. Alaves are also likely to be relegated and are five points from safety.

The third relegation place is all to play for, with Cadiz (48%), Mallorca (37%), Granada (25%) all battling it out. With some of these teams still to play each other, it will be dependent on those games who is relegated to the Spanish Segunda.

1. Levante

Played: 29

Points: 19

Form: LDLWD

Relegation Probability: 94%

2. Alaves

Played: 29

Points: 22

Form: LLDDL

Relegation Probability: 80%

3. Cadiz

Played: 29

Points: 27

Form: WLWDD

Relegation Probability: 48%

4. Mallorca

Played: 29

Points: 26

Form: LLLLL

Relegation Probability: 37%

5. Granada

Played: 29

Points: 28

Form: WLLDL

Relegation Probability: 25%

 

German Bundesliga

The Bundesliga is different from the leagues in England and Spain, as only two teams are automatically relegated, while a third will enter a playoff against the third-place team from the Bundesliga 2, which thus affects the probability of relegation.

Greuther Furth seem doomed, with an over 99% chance of going down. But the race to avoid automatic relegation in 19th place and a relegation playoff is on.

Arminia are currently 19th on 25 points and Hertha BSC, VfB Stuttgart and Augsburg are all neck and neck on 26 points.

With Arminia vs Stuttgart, Arminia vs Hertha, Hertha vs Augsburg Hertha vs Stuttgart all still to come this season, these games will decide the fate of the Bundesliga relegation battle.

1. Greuther Furth

Played: 27

Points: 15

Form: DLLDL

Relegation Probability: >99%

2. Arminia Bielefeld

Played: 27

Points: 25

Form: LLLLW

Relegation Probability: 54%

3. Hertha BSC

Played: 27

Points: 26

Form: WLLLL

Relegation Probability: 36%

4. VfB Stuttgart

Played: 27

Points: 26

Form: WDWLD

Relegation Probability: 23%

5. FC Augsburg

Played: 26

Points: 26

Form: LWDLL

Relegation Probability: 14%

 

Italian Serie A

The Italian top-flight is perhaps the easiest relegation scrap to predict, with three clubs more than likely to go down. Salernitana are almost guaranteed to be relegated, with a 97% probability, Genoa are slightly less likely on 80%, and Venezia, similar, on 74%.

Cagliari and Spezia are also not out of trouble yet, but with Cagliari still to play Genoa, Salernitana, and Venezia, and Spezia being seven points clear with a game against Venezia, it’s still in their hands.

1. Salernitana

Played: 28

Points: 16

Form: LDLDD

Relegation Probability: 97%

2. Genoa

Played: 30

Points: 22

Form: WDDDD

Relegation Probability: 80%

3. Venezia

Played: 29

Points: 22

Form: LLLLD

Relegation Probability: 74%

4. Cagliari

Played: 30

Points: 25

Form: LLLWD

Relegation Probability: 30%

5. Spezia

Played: 30

Points: 29

Form: LWLLL

Relegation Probability: 12%

 

French Ligue 1

Ligue 1 is the same as the Bundesliga, in that there is a relegation playoff for the 18th placed team.

Metz and Bordeaux are in the most trouble, with Bordeaux on 22 points and Metz on 23.

Bordeaux have a slightly higher chance of survival as they have easier fixtures, but this is still unlikely.

It’s all about the battle to escape the relegation playoff spot, with St. Etienne, Clermont, Lorient and also Troyes only separated by one point.

With several of these teams still to play each other, keep an eye on these team’s fixtures games to know who will be heading for a big game against the third-placed Ligue 2 side.

1. Metz

Played: 29

Points: 23

Form: LDLDD

Relegation Probability: 80%

2. Bordeaux

Played: 29

Points: 22

Form: LLLDD

Relegation Probability: 77%

3. St. Etienne

Played: 29

Points: 27

Form: DDWLD

Relegation Probability: 25%

4. Clermont

Played: 29

Points: 28

Form: LLLDW

Relegation Probability: 18%

5. Troyes

Played: 29

Points: 29

Form: DWWDL

Relegation Probability: 12%