Josh Hobbs
Eddie Nketiah continues Arsenal renaissance with future up in the air
This season, Eddie Nketiah had been a bit-part player at Arsenal until a recent run of starts and goals. Questions about his future are soon to be answered.
Midway through April, Arsenal looked like they might be about to collapse and let slip the top four spot they had been holding comfortably for some time. They lost three games on the trot to Crystal Palace, Brighton, and Southampton and faced a difficult challenge in their next game against Chelsea.
Mikel Arteta’s response was to bring in two players from the cold. Mohammed Elneny and Eddie Nketiah were given their first starts of the season, to excellent effect, as the Gunners ran out 4-2 victors. Nketiah took his chance by the horns, scoring twice on the night. With Elneny, he has started Arsenal’s three games since, which have all been wins for the North London side.
Nketiah continued his renaissance in the Arsenal team with a brace in the first ten minutes of the game against Leeds United on the weekend, with those two goals sealing a 2-1 victory for the Gunners. Both goals summed up his game perfectly, as his reputation at Arsenal has been of a strong presser and a fox-in-the-box, with his link-up play being the area of his game that has lacked and saw him become a forgotten man.
Against the Whites, he opened his account for the day by sprinting to close down Leeds’ goalkeeper, Illan Meslier and capitalising on a poor touch in order to essentially tackle the ball into the net. His second demonstrated how excellent his movement in the box can be as he dropped into space between the six-yard box and the penalty spot and finished a cutback under little pressure.
Whilst the 22-year-old might not be the most complete centre forward, he will always be a regular source of goals and this is borne out in the stats. Over the last year, according to FBref, he ranks in the 93rd percentile for strikers in the top five European leagues when it comes to non-penalty goals per 90, with a figure of 0.59. His goal scoring primarily comes from regularly getting into excellent positions in the box, rather than razor-sharp finishing. This is shown by the fact that his non-penalty expected goals figure is a little higher at 0.65. This puts Nketiah in the 98th percentile for this metric.
His pressures per 90 of 19.42 also highlight what he can bring off the ball and this is of particular importance given that Arsenal’s defensive structure has primarily required a high press.
With those figures in mind, it’s easy to see why Arteta has regularly stated that he would like to keep the young striker at the club. Having a pressy goal scorer like the Arsenal youth product as an option will always be beneficial. However, it’s plain that Arsenal want more of an all-rounder to lead the line and Nketiah has let his contract run down as he is seeking regular minutes, meaning he can leave for free this summer.
He may be convinced to sign an extension at the Emirates after this recent run of games. However, he will be aware that should another striker come in, his starting place would be immediately under threat. With that in mind, it seems more likely that Nketiah will play elsewhere next season.
There had been rumours of interest from the Bundesliga but perhaps a move closer to home might be the best way forward for the Londoner. Several outlets have reported that the striker is a key target for Crystal Palace and that move would make an enormous amount of sense. There is the Arsenal link with Patrick Vieira and Palace have looked a club transformed in the last season.
After many years of safety-first football under Roy Hodgson, they have prioritised signing young, exciting players since his departure and Vieira has been able to overhaul the playing style. One thing they have missed is a regular source of goals though, as Odsonne Edouard, Jean-Phillipe Mateta and Christian Benteke have scored only 12 Premier League goals between them.
Whilst Nketiah probably still wouldn’t start every game at Palace - as they would still require playing with a physical, all-round centre forward at times - he would likely see a lot of minutes were he to make the move. With Michael Olise – one of the division's top young creators with an expected assists per 90 output of 0.28, ranking him in the 90th percentile of the top five leagues – supplying crosses and through balls for the striker, the Eagles would have a potent combination. Considering they look likely to lose the goal output from Conor Gallagher next season, this could be vital for Vieira’s side if they want to continue building on the positive momentum from this season.
For now, Nketiah will be focused on playing well and scoring more goals as Arsenal hope to seal their Champions League spot. The future will become clear very soon.
