Driving factors for each team fighting for fourth

With eight points separating Tottenham, - who currently sit in fourth place - and Wolves, - who are in eighth - the battle for that final guaranteed Champions League place will go down to the wire.

There are five teams involved in the fight for fourth place; Tottenham, Manchester United, Arsenal, West Ham and Wolves. 

All five deserve some form of European competition football next year, but only one can get that fourth spot. But who will it be?

Each team has something that will drive them towards that ultimate goal, and they will need that in abundance for the rest of the season if they hope to get top four. Here is what each team has in their locker that will hopefully help propel them towards that final spot.

 

Tottenham - Son Heung-min and Harry Kane

Harry Kane and Son Heung-min have been an incredible strike partnership since Tottenham signed Son back in 2015.

They have gone on to become the league's most formidable duo, and in that time have set numerous records.

Last season, they broke the record for most goal combinations for a pairing in a season, combining for 13 goals and beating the previous record of 12 set by Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton.

This year, the two were at it again, breaking the all-time record for most goal contributions. The previous record of 36, set by Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard, was surpassed by the Spurs pair in February as they got their 37th goal together against Leeds. Since then, they have added to their total to make it 40.

Spurs will need both men in top form and to stay in full health if they hope to keep the fourth spot which they currently occupy. The loss to Brighton on the weekend won’t help them in their bid, especially when Manchester United won over the weekend.

Arsenal’s loss helped Tottenham out, since a win for them would’ve meant they went into fourth. But Spurs shouldn’t want to count on the others slipping up to give them fourth.

 

Manchester United - Most goals per 90 minutes

Manchester United have had a pretty disappointing season, if you go by what was expected from them before the start, or even after a few games into the season. With the squad they have, they should be challenging for the title.

Instead, they find themselves fighting it out for the chance to play in the Champions League next season.

They do have a good chance at getting fourth. They are only three points behind Tottenham and on level points with Arsenal, although they have a superior goal difference over the Gunners that has them in fifth.

For Man United, what they will be needing if they want to get fourth is the goals to keep flowing. And by that, I mean that they have the best goals per 90 minutes rate, best assist per 90 minutes rate, and of course, the best goals + assists per 90 minutes rate from the five teams in the fourth spot fight.

The Red Devils have a 1.59 goals per 90 minutes rate, which narrowly beats Tottenham and has them fourth in the league for that stat. 

In fact, for all the stats in the per 90 minutes category, - goals, assists, goals plus assists, goals minus penalty kicks, and goals plus assists minus penalty kicks - Man United rank in fourth, ahead of the others.

Oh, and I forgot to mention, the three teams ahead of them in those stats are the top three teams in the league, who are each having incredible seasons.

 

Arsenal - Most games in hand

Honestly, it was a bit hard to find the driving factor for Arsenal’s top four campaign. They should easily have fourth place secured, maybe even challenging Chelsea for third. The Gunners were in good form, they had the games in hand to get a good lead, and yet somehow, they have blown it by losing their last three games in succession.

But going back to the games in hand, that should be what drives Arsenal forwards. They have had the most games in hand from any of these five teams for a long time now, and they still do now.

Manchester United is fully caught up, having played 33 games so far. Tottenham, West Ham and Wolves are then one game back on 32 games played. But for Arsenal, they have only played 31 games.

Which means Arsenal have the luxury of knowing exactly what they need. They’ll know what they need from their catchup games to be able to go ahead of United and Spurs, and that’s a big positive for them.

Although, with Chelsea and Spurs to play in their two catchup games, and the rest of their schedule not looking too fun for them, I’m not quite so sure of their chances.

 

West Ham - Overachieving

Like Arsenal, it was hard to find something that West Ham do better than the others. 

At the start of the year, they were beating Chelsea and Liverpool and looking like a sure-thing for the top four. But they have slowed down considerably since then and now sit two points behind Arsenal and Manchester United, and five points behind Tottenham.

The one thing I could point out for West Ham is that none of the others here can boast an overachieving rate for scoring like the Hammers.

West Ham has the second-best goal to expected goal difference in the league, with their actual goal total being 7.5 goals more than their expected total.

They’re also second for non-penalty goals minus non-penalty expected goals, again showing how impressive they have been this year at getting more than expected from them.

And that’s the factor which could help them. No one is counting them out of the fight completely. But with them being five points off of the spot, and they are the only team left from these five who are also occupied with a European competition (competing in the Europa League Semi-finals), the others may let their guards down and not consider West Ham, and that’ll be when they strike.

 

Wolves - Defence

Wolves may be quite a long shot, as they have been for most of the season. But I have always counted them in this battle because the way they have played this year warrants some recognition.

Wolves have slipped under the radar this year because they haven’t been lighting the league up. But that’s exactly how they’ve wanted to play.

Despite being in eighth place, they find themselves in 15th place for goals scored this year, with just 33 goals. That’s 12 goals behind Arsenal, the second least number of goals from these five teams.

But crucially, Wolves have only conceded 28 times. That’s the fourth least number of goals scored this year in the whole league, and nine less than Arsenal, who are in second for this stat.

Jose Sa, Wolves’ number one, has the league's best save percentage by a decent margin, with an 83.2% save percentage. For context, Chelsea’s Edouard Mendy is second with a 78.4% save percentage.

Wolves haven’t got an easy run to the end of the season. They’ll need to face each of the top three at some point in their six games remaining. But if there’s any of these teams who can hold those three, I’d back Wolves