Champions League's over-performing teams by xG so far

The Champions League returns with knockout stage action. The Round of 16 kicks off this week, so to prepare us all, we've got all the teams who over-performed in the group stage according to xG.

 

The Champions League has returned, with the first stage of the knockout rounds, the Round of 16, kicking off this week.

So, to get everyone prepped and ready for the resumption of the best competition in club football, we have compiled a list of all the teams who over-performed in the group stage, that is according to their xG.

Note that only teams who were at least a full goal up on their xG made this list.

Ajax

Goals: 19

xG: 16.3

Ajax are surprise contenders for this year's competition. They went unbeaten in the group stage, which is a very commendable achievement and puts them in an elite group this year as Bayern Munich and Liverpool did the same.

If the Dutch side can keep their league form up in the Champions League, they are sure to do well.

Atalanta

Goals: 12

xG: 8.8

Atalanta have the unfortunate distinction of being the first of three teams on this list to have a positive goals-to-expected-goals rate and still not make it through to the knockout stages.

They had a tough time in the group stage, picking up just six points from winning only one game and drawing three.

Bayern Munich

Goals: 21

xG: 13.9

The powerhouse of Europe, Bayern are easily one of the favourites to win the tournament, and it's clear to see why.

Seriously, look at those two numbers. How can they be so far apart?

Liverpool

Goals: 16

xG: 11.6

As mentioned in the Ajax entry, Liverpool are one of three teams to go unbeaten in the group stage. And they did so very impressively, considering they were in this year's group of death with Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, and Porto.

Manchester City

Goals: 17

xG: 15.1

Finalists last year, Manchester City look like they’ve only gotten stronger this season. Having PSG didn’t stop them from finishing top, and the two also shared their series together, taking one win a piece (PSG does win 3-2 on aggregate, though)

Manchester United

Goals: 11

xG: 8.3

Many people had Manchester United as their favourite to do incredibly well this season. Some people were even calling treble. At the start of the year, it did look that way. Now we know it couldn’t be further from the truth.

The Red Devils are still in the competition, though, and they have no other trophy to fight for this season. They may as well go all out and see what they can get.

Paris Saint-Germain

Goals: 13

xG: 11.8

For all the firepower Paris Saint-Germain have, many have labelled the French side as “disappointing” this season. 

While they did finish second in their group, behind Man City, they should still be considered one of the favourites to win it all this year.

RB Leipzig

Goals: 15

xG: 11.2

The second positive team to not make it, RB Leipzig were unfortunate to be put in group A with Man City and PSG and finished third. 

They did well, though. They outscored PSG in the group stage, which can be seen as a small win. In fact, their 15 goals scored puts them in fifth from the 32 teams for most goals scored in the group stage.

Real Madrid

Goals: 13

xG: 11.7

Never mind how good Real Madrid could look next season, that is if all the Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland rumours are to be believed, the Spanish side qualified top of their group, winning five of their six games.

They took one loss, though. One sensational, hilarious loss too…

Sheriff Tiraspol

Goals: 7

xG: 3.8

The slayers of Real Madrid. The group-toppers for a truly short amount of time. The team from a state that is but also isn’t part of Moldova. It’s very confusing.

Despite the victory over Real and another against Shakhtar Donetsk, the Sheriff’s didn’t make it through to the next round.

Although they did finish third, so watch out for them in the Europa League.

Sporting CP

Goals: 14

xG: 10.0

Sporting CP won their first league title in 19 years last season. They are flying high at the moment domestically, and they have taken that momentum into the Champions League.

They managed to beat out Borussia Dortmund for second with a superior goal difference, as the two sides had the same three wins and three loses record. 

Villareal

Goals: 12

xG: 10.6

Last year’s Europa League champions were put into a group with the team they beat in the final, Manchester United. Unfortunately for Villareal, they couldn’t replicate last year’s result in either game, as they were beaten 2-1 then 0-2.

They won’t mind, though, as they still did enough in their other games to see themselves through to the Round of 16.