Champions League: How things stand after the Round of 16

With the first round of the knockout stage now complete, we take a look at the teams still vying for the trophy. We've got the favourites, the underdogs, and the probably-should-stay-away-from teams.

The Champions League Round of 16 has concluded, eight teams are left standing, and the landscape of this year's competition has changed somewhat.

From the teams left in the competition, we’ve looked at who is the favourite to win it all, who could potentially shake things up, and who is probably best to stay away from.

 

Bayern Munich - Team to beat

Bayern entered the competition as one of the favourites, and as it stands, they remain very much one of the favourites.

The German champions went perfect through the group stage, winning all six games. Their first bump in the road came in the first leg of their last-16 clash against RB Salzburg, when they only managed a 1-1 draw with the Austrian side.

But it was no issue for them, as in the second leg at home, they went on to beat Salzburg 7-1, going through to the next round 8-2 on aggregate.

No team has scored more goals in the tournament than Bayern or have been over-performing more against their expected goal rate. Bayern has scored 29 goals so far from 20.2 xG, a massive 8.8 difference.

To break it down even further, they average 3.92 goals per 90 mins, from an xG of 2.52 goals per 90 minutes. That’s a difference of +1.4. 

As for their players, they’ve had seven different goal scorers for their 29 goals. All seven of them are exceeding their expected total goals and expected goals per 90 minutes.

Robert Lewandowski is their top goal scorer, as he is for the whole tournament. He has scored 12 goals so far in eight games and has a rate of 1.56 goals per 90 mins. 

How much has he exceeded his expected rates, you ask? Well, his xG total is at 9.0, so he is exceeding that by a whole three goals. While his xG per 90 minutes is at 1.16, so he is exceeding that by +0.4. 

There isn’t a single player who has played in all eight games to this point who beats him for those numbers.

 

Real Madrid - Dark horse

Real Madrid pulled off a sensational victory in their Round of 16 clash with PSG. After going 1-0 down in the first leg, and then again at half-time in the second leg, they bounced back with a Karim Benzema hat-trick to win the tie 3-2.

Because of such a fantastic result, many have realised that Real should not be dismissed. They always have the potential to make a good run in the competition.

Going back to Benzema, he has the third-most goals scored in the competition so far with eight. And the Frenchman actually has a superior goals scored to expected goals rate than Lewandowski.

He has a rate of 1.17 goals per 90 mins on an xG rate of 0.73, which is a +0.44 difference and 0.04 more than Lewandowski. He also matches the Bayern star with a +3 difference to his xG total.

As a team, Real actually have the third worst overall difference of total goals to expected total goals, but it is not negative. In fact, it is still a good difference of +2.3, as their xG is 13.7 and their actual total is 16.

As for goals per 90 mins, they have a straight rate of 2 goals per 90 mins. As for xG, that’s at 1.71, so a +0.29 difference there.

They are some way off Bayern's rates; however, no-one is anywhere near Bayern. Real Madrid is in a decent position and could be a good pick to win it all. After all, there are worse…

 

Benfica - Steer clear

Benfica are probably the least likely team from the eight left to win this year’s competition, but we’re not going to say it's impossible.

They did manage to knock out Ajax, one of the three teams - along with Bayern and Liverpool - to go perfect through the group stage.

Benfica managed that feat through three goals scored over both legs on a 2.2 xG in total. Most impressively, they won the second game at Ajax 1-0 with a 0.3 xG, while Ajax had a 1.0 xG.

That is, for the most part, the end of the good stats for the Portuguese side as a team.

They rank as the worst team for goals in the campaign, with only nine scored, while they have been expected 9.5. They have a rate of 1.13 goals per 90 minutes, but again, that is a negative on their xG, which is at 1.19. 

That’s a difference of -0.5 goals scored, with a -0.06 goals per 90 minutes. They’re not massively negative, but it is negative, nonetheless.

There is a positive for them that comes from their players, though. They’ve had five different goal scorers, and three of them have positive goals per 90 minutes to expected goals per 90 minutes rates. 

One of them is Darwin Nunez, their young Uruguayan star. He has four goals in the competition on a 2.3 xG, so a difference of +1.7.

He has a rate of 0.83 goals per 90 minutes, which is up +0.35 on his xG per 90 mins of 0.48.

If Benfica hold any chance in the next round, it's going to be through their young star.