Derek Bilton
Champions League final picks
Liverpool vs Real Madrid in the Champions League final kicks off on Saturday. Liverpool will want revenge from 2018, while Real could surprise us all once more. We've got the best picks for the game.
This year’s UEFA Champions League Final has all the ingredients to be a classic as Liverpool face Real Madrid in Paris. It is a match up befitting the occasion. Two of the most successful sides in European Cup history and both are in form. Los Blancos ran away with another La Liga crown this season while Liverpool won both ELF and FA Cups this season. They came mighty close to winning the Premier League on Sunday too, so need to dust themselves down and go again this weekend.
Jurgen Klopp’s men are aiming to win their seventh European Cup, and register a third UEFA Champions League success. Madrid meanwhile have claimed the trophy 13 times, including seven in the UEFA Champions League era.
With dreams of an unprecedented quadruple in tatters, there’s a case to be made that Liverpool could be flat in Paris. Despite this, the Reds are 11/10 favourites to win in 90 minutes. That price is perhaps understandable, given their attacking prowess and the encouraging news that Fabinho and Thiago seem to be winning their respective fitness battles.
Madrid must be respected however. Los Blancos got the better of Liverpool in last season's quarter-finals and have eliminated two of Liverpool's biggest Premier League rivals (Chelsea and Manchester City) in consecutive rounds in this season's competition. In Karim Benzema they also have the competition’s top scorer (15).
Benzema has been Madrid’s main man this season, plundering an eye-watering 44 goals in all competitions. Yet the Frenchman is so much more than a just a goal scorer. He has a habit of drifting into wide areas to create two against one situations before marauding back into the box to apply his killer finish. The stats don’t lie. 15 goals in 11 games in this season’s competition is some going for a 34-year-old, and the key for Liverpool winning this match will be to keep him quiet. Indeed, Benzema v Virgil van Dijk should be a PPV attraction in itself.
The betting markets suggest there will be goals, and both teams have a rich history in this competition. Liverpool have won six of their nine previous European Cup finals, and will be desperate to shake off the disappointment of losing the Premier League title to Man City on the final day by doing the business in Paris. Real Madrid meanwhile are by far the most successful team in European Cup history, having taken home the prestigious trophy a total of 13 times.
In terms of how they got here, Liverpool clearly had an easier route to the final, playing Inter Milan, Benfica and Villarreal in the knockout stages. However, they also had the tougher group phase, having faced 2020/21 La Liga champions Atletico Madrid, AC Milan (who have just been crowned Seri A champions) and Portuguese Primeira winners Porto.
It should be quite the spectacle given the talent on show at the Stade de France, but I can’t help feeling Real Madrid have been fortunate to get this far. You can make an argument Chelsea played well enough in that second leg to knock them out in the Bernabeu, while Man City missed an outrageous amount of chances over both legs in that unforgettable semi-final.
Liverpool's defensive stability, in comparison to Madrid's, is also a massive plus for anyone looking to back Klopp’s men. With this in mind, Liverpool look a bet at 11/10 to get the job done over 90 minutes.
Benzema, the competition’s top scorer with 15, is a 5/1 shot to score first and that will be a popular bet. However, Mo Salah has bagged 33 goals in just 55 Champions League appearances for the Reds, and the ‘Egyptian King’ looks big at 9/2 to score first.
There are a plethora of ‘special bets’ as you would expect for a game of this magnitude. And one that looks interesting is Paddy Power’s 50/1 that Trent Alexander-Arnold scores a direct free-kick and is named UEFA Man of the Match.
Liverpool’s full-backs could hold the key on the night. For anyone who has watched the Reds this season, they have bulldozed their way through the Champions League, and there is no denying that Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson are absolutely pivotal to their offensive game.
As well as four assists, Alexander-Arnold has completed more crosses (23) than any other player in the competition, while Robertson (two assists) ranks joint-fourth in the crosses category with 16.
Alexander-Arnold has had more touches than any other Liverpool player in the Champions League this season – 853 from eight matches – but is often more effective (and certainly more involved) in the opposition half.
The $64,000 question is whether Madrid can exploit the space in behind Liverpool’s full-backs in Paris, particularly on Alexander-Arnold’s side given it is on Madrid’s left that Benzema and Vinicius Junior have combined so effectively this season.
However, if Liverpool are on the front foot throughout, Benzema could be isolated and it’s not beyond the realms of fantasy to envisage TAA putting in a match-winning shift and also scoring a free-kick (the Reds have the most dead-ball goals in this season’s Champions League with eight).
Ominously Madrid have never lost a UEFA Champions League final, but records are there to be broken and this Liverpool team have the skills and the sheer will to win to finish an incredible season with a flourish.
Banker: Liverpool to win in 90 minutes at 11/10 (Betfair/QuinnBet)
First Goal Flutter: Mo Salah to score first at 9/2 (Unibet)
