‘Big Fives’ most overachieving teams by xGD

Goal difference can be an important factor for deciding the fate of a team's season. These 10 teams have done well by themselves to overachieve by their expected goal difference and put themselves in a strong position should their campaign be decided by their goal difference.

Goal difference can be the deciding factor for many variables at the end of the season. Whether it be two teams tied at the top of the table or multiple teams on equal points for the last survival spot, goal difference is there to decide who comes out on top.

For the 10 teams on this list, should an eventuality happen where goal difference will decide the fate of their season, they won’t have to worry one bit.

Here are the top 10 teams from Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues who are overachieving by their expected goal difference.

 

Wolves

xGD: -15

GD: +6

Difference: +21

 

Starting off in the English Premier League with a low scorer but a big difference, Wolves find themselves at the top of this list with a monumental +21 difference.

The stats have them with one of the lowest goal differences in the league. If they did match their xGD, they would be in 15th for the stat.

Instead, they have surprisingly not just exceeded it, but find themselves in the positive for their actual goal difference.

 

Sevilla

xGD: +4.5

GD: +20

Difference: +15.5

 

Sevilla made the most of the poor first half of the season Barcelona and Atletico Madrid had by sticking around in the top four for the majority of the year.

They have only lost three times this year, which puts them on par with table-toppers Real Madrid, and share equal points with Barca and Atletico.

Part of their success has come down to how well they have overachieved by. A low +4.5 xGD has been turned into a joint-third best in the league +20.

 

Rennes

xGD: +21.3

GD: +35

Difference: +13.7

 

Rennes are having a spectacular year and find themselves currently in a Champions League spot, sitting in third place in the French Ligue 1 table.

The best way to explain how well they are doing this year is as such; they are matching PSG for goal scored this year, with 64, and are only beaten by the league leaders by one goal in actual goal difference.

 

Chelsea

xGD: +21.6

GD: +35

Difference: +13.4

 

Chelsea’s year started off with them looking like potential title winners, but then it stalled quite quickly and now they have started to slowly get caught up by those behind.

That’s where their strong goal difference will help them. They have the third best goal difference in the league, so if it does come to a point where the final place in the Champions League next season is between the Blues and another team on equal points, Chelsea should have it.

 

Real Madrid

xGD: +21.8

GD: +35

Difference: +13.2

 

There are only two teams on this list who sit atop their league table, and Real Madrid is the one overachieving the most.

Real’s 12-point lead should be enough to see them win the title this year, although Barcelona and Atletico’s resurgence should have them a little worried.

They do still have the best goal difference in the league, so that would fare good for them should the champion be decided on that factor.

 

RB Leipzig

xGD: +17.1

GD: +30

Difference: +12.9

 

A German Bundesliga triple-header up next, with RB Leipzig taking the top spot as the league’s top overachieving representative.

Despite being ahead of them on this list, the order is almost flipped in the actual table standings.

Leipzig are in fourth place with 48 points, behind Bayer Leverkusen's 51 and Borussia Dortmund's 57.

Crucially, though, they have a superior actual goal difference compared to those two.

 

Borussia Dortmund

xGD: +14.4

GD: +26

Difference: +11.6

 

Funny enough, Dortmund and Leverkusen actually match each other for expected goal difference, actual goal difference, goals scored and goals conceded. Both have scored 68 goals and conceded 42 to give them a +26 goal difference.

The real difference is in results and their xG and xGA. Dortmund has a record of 18 wins, three draws and seven losses. 

Their season xG is 49.2, while their season xGA is 34.8, giving them the xGD of +14.4.

They also have an xGD per 90 minutes rate of +0.51, which is narrowly beaten by Leverkusen.

 

Bayer Leverkusen

xGD: +14.4

GD: +26

Difference: +11.6

 

As mentioned, Leverkusen and Dortmund are almost completely matching bar some expected goals differences and results.

Leverkusen's record is 15 wins, six draws and seven losses. They have a season xG of 52 and a season xGA of 37.6, which, like Dortmund, gives them a total of +14.4. And finally, their xGD per 90 minutes is +0.52.

 

Inter

xGD: +28.6

GD: +39

Difference: +10.4

 

The first and last Italian side on this list, Inter are pushing to defend their title but are looking like they might just fall short.

They are going well, though. They are the top scorers of the Serie A, having scored 63 goals. They have conceded the second-least number of goals with 24, thus giving them a league-best +39 goal difference.

Inter have the best xGD per 90 minutes of anyone on this list, with them coming in with a strong +0.95. That also puts them in fourth from all the teams in Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues.

 

PSG

xGD: +26.2

GD: +36

Difference: +9.4

 

PSG sit atop the French Ligue 1 and don’t seem like they’ll be deposed at any point

They are joint top for most goals scored with 64, second for least goals conceded with 28, and have a league-best +39 goal difference, which, if you remember Rennes GD from earlier, only beats them by 1.

PSG +0.87 xGD per 90 minutes is a league best, but also puts them in second on this list and sixth overall in the ‘Big Five’.