10 most underachieving teams by xGD in Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues

Last week, we showcased the 10 most overachieving teams by xGD from Europe's 'Big Five' leagues. Now, were taking a look at the 10 most underachieving teams.

Last week, we looked at the top 10 teams from Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues who are overachieving by their expected goal difference.

This week, we're going to be looking at the opposite, showing the top 10 teams who are underachieving by their expected goal difference.

 

Greuther Furth

xGD: -24.9

GD: -48

Difference: -23.1

 

Greuther Furth’s return to the Bundesliga looks like it will last just one season once again. They sit at the bottom of the German Bundesliga table, 10 points back of the team one place above them.

Their quite frankfully horrendous goal difference is a big reason for them being down there, although even if they were matching their expected goal difference, they would probably still be going down this season as it is the second-worst xGD in the league.

 

Levante

xGD: -3.1

GD: -26

Difference: 22.9

 

In recent seasons, Levante have managed to finish around the mid table. They’re never anything too special, but usually they are good enough to be able to survive being embroiled in the relegation battle.

This year, they were expected the same sort of result. Their xGD is the 10th highest in the league, so for them to have such a poor goal difference is surprising, and as such, they are in a position where relegation looks certain.

 

Salernitana

xGD: -29.5

GD: -48

Difference: 18.5

 

Salernitana is similar to Greuther Furth in multiple ways, the two main ones being they are competing in the top flight of their countries league for the first time in many years, and they are going to be relegated this season.

Unfortunately for Salernitana, there really is no upside to their year. They have struggled in the Italian Serie A and simply seem to be out of their depths, and both their xGD and actual GD showcase that as they are by far the worst in the league.

 

Clermont Foot

xGD: -10.5

GD: -29

Difference: -18.5

 

The first side to feature on this list who isn’t currently in the relegation zone of their league, Clermont Foot find themselves very much in the relegation battle in the French Ligue 1 after experiencing a five-game losing streak that is still on-going.

Their GD and xGD isn’t the worst in the league, but it is amongst the worst, so they find themselves in familiar company.

 

Mallorca

xGD: -7.5

GD: -23

Difference: 15.5

 

Mallorca find themselves fighting the relegation battle, but things wouldn’t be very different if they were more closely matching their expected totals.

Their xGD would still have them only in 15th in the league, and the team currently in 15th in the league is only three points ahead of Mallorca. So, they’d be a little better off, but still struggling.

 

Genoa

xGD: -13.6

GD: -28

Difference: 14.4

 

Genoa’s stay in the Serie A could be coming to an end this season. They are currently in 18th in the league, level points with the team in 19th, but only three points behind the team in 17th. There is a possibility they could stay up this season.

They haven’t been helping themselves, though. Their goal difference is the third worst in the league. Their xGD isn’t a whole lot better, but if they were matching it, they wouldn’t be risking relegation right now.

 

Lorient

xGD: -4.9

GD: -19

Difference: 14.1

 

Lorient look on track to survive another year in Ligue 1. They are in 16th place but have a four-point gap to the relegation play-off spot, and with their form compared to the others below them, they might just be able to stay up.

While they are underachieving their goal difference by a heavy amount, things would be much different if they were close to or matching their xGD, as they have the 11th best xGD in the league.

 

Leeds

xGD: -16.5

GD: -30

Difference: 13.5

 

After a very promising first season back in the top flight English Premier League last season, Leeds have struggled this year and find themselves very much embroiled in the relegation battle.

They are nine points clear of Burnley in 18th place, so of all the teams on this list who are fighting the relegation battle, Leeds are in the healthiest position. But that doesn’t change the fact that they have still massively underachieved and disappointed many this season.

 

Hertha BSC

xGD: -22.6

GD: -35

Difference: 12.4

 

Hertha BSC are really exactly where they belong, right down towards the bottom of the table, sitting one place above rock bottom. Their xGD is the third worst in the Bundesliga, their actual goal difference is the second worst, and they have also lost the second most games this season.

 

Borussia Monchengladbach

xGD: +1.3

GD: -11

Difference: 12.3

 

Borussia Monchengladbach are the most successful team on this list, and are actually quite unlucky to be featured here, although it is by their own doing.

Monchengladbach are sitting in 11th place in the Bundesliga, but could be higher if they were playing to their expectations. If the league was ranked by xGD, they would be two places above where they are now, sitting pretty in the top half of the table in ninth.

Alternatively, if it was ranked by actual goal difference, they would find themselves in 12th.