10 most overachieving teams by xG from Europe's 'Big Five' leagues

Scoring goals is the only way you’re going to win games. The ten teams on this list don’t just do it better than any other team in Europe’s ‘Big Five’, but even better than what they themselves are expected.

This season has seen some high goal scoring teams. Bayern with 81, Liverpool 75 and Manchester City with 68 are the top three scorers from Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues. Shoutout to Ajax, though, who have 80 goals.

But who have been the most overachieving teams with their goal scoring according to their expected goals?

 

Borussia Dortmund

Scored = 67

xG = 48.4

Difference = 18.6

 

Dortmund may not be top of the Bundesliga, but they have Bayern well and truly beat for this stat.

The German side also reign supreme in the difference for goals per 90 mins (2.33) to expected goals per 90 mins (1.79), with a difference of 0.54.

 

Leverkusen

Scored = 66 

xG = 50

Difference = 16

 

Two German sides rank at the top of this statistic, and funny enough, in the Bundesliga, they line up one behind each other just like this, too. Although, it's second and third there, not first and second.

Leverkusen may find themselves nine points back on Dortmund, but at least they are keeping up with them in terms of goals.

Like Dortmund, they also beat Bayern for their per 90 mins difference, with 2.26 goals per 90 mins on 1.85 expected goals per 90 mins giving them a healthy 0.41 difference.

 

Lazio

Scored = 58

xG = 42.9

Difference = 15.1

 

The first of three Italian sides, Lazio ranks highly on this list despite occupying seventh in their league.

The side from Rome has the Serie A top scorer in Ciro Immobile, and that’ll be why they find themselves overachieving not just with goals, but with position, too.

They have the second most goals scored in the league, trailing Inter by four goals, but they absolutely trounce them in the difference of actual goals to expected goals.

In fact, Inter, like Bayern, have a low rate that doesn’t even put them on this list.

 

Hellas Verona

Scored = 55

xG = 41 

Difference = 14

 

Hellas Verona are very similar to Lazio, only they find themselves down in 10th place.

Never the mind, though, as their unexpected goal scoring rate this season will surely have their fans satisfied nonetheless.

55 goals scored on the season is the joint-fourth most, alongside the third Italian side who features on this list.

 

Rennes

Scored = 63

xG = 49.2

Difference = 13.8

 

A French side next, Rennes have been experiencing a marvellous season and currently find themselves up in a Champions League spot, sitting in third place.

Their goal scoring could be the main reason for them being placed so high. They are the top scorer in the league, beating out PSG by four goals.

More impressively, and another reason why they are so high, is that they have conceded just 28 goals - that’s the fourth least amount of goals conceded in the league, and gives them the best goal difference in the league of +35.

 

Atletico Madrid

Scored = 53

xG = 39.7

Difference = 13.3

 

And now to a Spanish side, the reigning La Liga champions have been having a surprisingly disappointing retention campaign.

Atletico have only just found themselves back in the top four, sitting in fourth place for now. 

Despite the mostly disappointing season so far, they can take solace in the fact that no-one in the league really comes close to overachieving like them.

 

Montpellier

Scored = 43

xG = 32.4

Difference = 10.6

 

The second team from Ligue 1 on the list is Montpellier, whose whole season seems to be about overachieving.

Because of their superior goals to expected goals ratio, they are able to hoist their goal difference up to greatly exceed their expected goal difference.

Their expected goal difference is -8.5, but because they are exceeding their expected goals by 10.6, they have boosted their actual goal difference to above their goals conceded and have a +3 goal difference.

 

Chelsea

Scored = 57

xG = 46.7

Difference = 10.3

 

The one and only English Premier League side on this list is the Blues of Chelsea. The London team may not be at the top of the league anymore, but at least they have Manchester City and Liverpool beat for this statistic.

Chelsea are very consistent with a lot of their stats in the Premier League, being that they are third in a number of categories; league position, goals scored, non penalty goals scored, goal difference, goals per 90 mins, expected goals per 90 mins, goals and assists per 90 mins…

It keeps going on, but we’ll leave it there.

 

Valencia

Scored = 42

xG = 32

Difference = 10

 

The second Spanish side on the list is Valencia, who have a nice and even 10 goal difference for actual goals to expected goals.

Valencia are in a group of their own as the only team on this list with a negative overall goal difference.

Despite having one of the best goals scored to expected goals scored ratio, they are still holding a -1 goal difference all together for the season.

At least they are doing slightly better than their expected goal difference, which is at -5.2.

 

Sassuolo

Scored = 55

xG = 45.6

Difference = 9.4

 

The final Italian side and final side on this list is Sassuolo.

Like Montpellier that featured earlier on the list, Sassuolo’s superior goal to expected goal difference gives them a much improved overall goal difference to what they are expected.

Their +6 goal difference is a +10.1 difference on their -4.9 expected goal difference, the largest distance for actual goal difference and expected goal difference on this list.