The Serie A title race projections: Milan, Napoli and Inter

AC Milan currently top Serie A with 67 points, but Napoli are only one point behind and Inter are only four points behind with a game in hand. 

The climax to the season should be fascinating and we’ve analysed each clubs' chances.  

 

 

AC Milan 

Stefano Pioli’s side are currently in the driving seat at the top of Serie A as they are chasing down their first league title since 2010/11. 

AC Milan have averaged 2.16 points per game, which would see them finish the season on 82 points if they were to carry on with the same trajectory.  

If AC Milan go onto win the league with 82 points it will be the lowest points tally achieved by the champions since AC Milan’s last title in 10/11 when they also won it with 82 points. 

They have been making steady progress under Stefano Pioli though, last season they finished second with 79 points as they averaged 2.07 points per game. 

They are currently on the second longest unbeaten run in Serie A, having not lost any of their last nine matches.  

Olivier Giroud, Rafael Leão and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are currently their joint top goalscorers, having each scored eight league goals. 

 

Napoli 

Having finished outside the top four for the previous two seasons, Napoli have done well to re-establish themselves amongst Italy’s top clubs once again. 

Luciano Spalletti has spent the majority of his managerial career in Italy and he done a superb job with Napoli so far. 

His side have averaged 2.13 points per game and are projected to finish on 81 points as things stand. 

Under Maurizio Sarri Napoli were best known for their fluid attacking structure, but this season their defence has been their strongest asset. 

Napoli have conceded just 23 goals this season, an average of 0.74 per game which is the best in the league.  

They do also carry a goal threat, especially through Victor Osimhen who has popped up with 11 league goals this season.  

Napoli hold onto the ball well and it will come as no surprise to learn that they average 56.6% possession, more than any other Serie A side.  

 

Inter 

As they have played one game less, Inter are currently the team lurking in the background but they certainly shouldn’t be underestimated.  

They have averaged 2.1 points per game and are projected to finish on 80 points at this point in time. 

Their 1-0 away win at Juventus was a huge boost in their title charge though as they are looking to defend their title from last season.  

Throughout December and January, Inter were leading the way in Serie A, but an inconsistent run of just two wins from their last eight matches has seen them slide down to third.  

Inter lead the way as the top scorers in Serie A this season, having scored 63 goals which is an average of 2.1 goals per game. 

Inter also lead the way for shots taken with an average of 16.9 shots per game and 6.4 shots on target per game.  

Both Lautaro Martínez and Edin Dzeko have hit double figures for a goal return and they have done well to offset the loss of Romelu Lukaku in the summer. 

This Inter squad has gone through quite the transition since last season under Antonio Conte and so somewhat of a drop off was always to be expected, but they are still well within the title race. 

Last season Inter averaged 2.39 points per game and finished with an impressive 91 points. The highest points tally Inter can finish this season on is 87 points if they win all eight of their remaining fixtures.