Premier League relegation battle: Who will go down to the Championship

Despite the fact that Everton and Burnley both have games-in-hand to be played on Thursday night, the Premier League’s relegation battle is guaranteed to go to the final day of the season. That’s due to Pascal Struijk’s late equaliser for Leeds United against Brighton, which brought them a point in their penultimate game of the season. Had they lost against the Seagulls, Leeds would have been as good as relegated if Everton and Burnley had both won their games on Thursday. They could still technically finish equal on points with Burnley, if the Clarets lost on the final day and the Whites won, but Leeds’ disastrous goal difference would doom them to relegation all the same. 

Instead, Leeds could go into their match against Brentford on Sunday with their fate in their own hands. In order for that to happen, they need Burnley to lose against Aston Villa on Thursday, meaning that the Whites would begin the final day a point ahead, knowing they only had to match Burnley’s result against Newcastle to stay up. Everton can only be caught by Leeds if the Toffees pick up a maximum of one point from their games against Crystal Palace and Arsenal and it would require Leeds to get an away win at Brentford to leapfrog Frank Lampard’s side. 

As such, Everton and Burnley have the advantage of having two opportunities to get the points they need to make themselves safe, albeit with tricky fixtures from which to do so. Here’s a look at the season stats for the three sides, to explore the reasons they are in the battle for survival at this late stage: 

Goals

Leeds edge out Everton as the top scorers of the three, with 40 to Everton’s 39. Burnley lag well behind with only 32 goals scored. 

In Burnley’s case, they are used to being one of the league’s lowest scorers but they have previously been able to rely on Chris Wood hitting double figures for multiple seasons in a row. The New Zealander left for Newcastle in January but he had only scored twice all season before making that move. Maxwel Cornet has top-scored for them with just eight goals. 

Meanwhile, both Leeds and Everton have been robbed of the players who would almost certainly have been their primary sources of goals. That’s due to the injuries of Patrick Bamford and Dominic Calvert-Lewin respectively. Last season, Bamford scored 17 and Calvert-Lewin 16 and it’s hard to imagine either side would find themselves in relegation danger had they been fit to even contribute half of those goals this term. Instead, they both relied on Brazilians to score goals, as Raphinha has hit ten for Leeds, whilst Richarlison has nine for the Toffees.

Expected goals

Using expected goals, we can get a better idea of a team’s creativity over the course of a season, as goals only tell half the story. One team may have scored several goals more than their performance levels would have deserved due to one or two clinical displays of finishing, or alternatively created a lot of chances without finishing well. 

Here we see another example of why Leeds missed Bamford this season as they have scored almost six goals fewer than expected as their xG total is 45.8. As Burnley and Everton have tracked a lot closer to their xG - with the Clarets creating 35.9 and Everton 40.9 - again, there’s a suggestion that Leeds could have been further away from danger going into the final day if they had somebody to reliably put the ball in the back of the net. In fact, according to xG, they are the tenth best team in the league in terms of chance creation. Everton and Burnley are 15th and 18th respectively. 

Goals conceded 

The other end of the pitch is where it gets ugly for Leeds and - to a lesser extent - Everton. 

Leeds go into their final game of the season having conceded 78 goals. Only last-placed Norwich City are worse in that regard. Thrashings at the hands of Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United have played major roles in Leeds’ horrendous record. 

Everton’s 59 is much better but still nine goals more than Burnley’s 50, which is the second-best defensive record in the bottom half of the table. Without the ability to keep games tight defensively, Burnley would surely already be relegated. 

Expected goals against

Likewise, with xG for, xG against is helpful to measure the quality of chances a team is giving away, as goals conceded alone can be messy as it could look better or worse than the quality of the defence’s performance based on how clinical the opposition has been. 

Leeds are an interesting case according to xG against, as they still would have conceded the most goals, even if their opponents had performed to expectation. However, expected goals suggest they should have conceded nine goals fewer as they’ve given away 69.1 xG against. The fact that they gave away so many high-value opportunities, which are naturally scored at a higher rate, against top teams is perhaps an explanation for this. 

Interestingly, Everton have also conceded nine goals more than their expectation of 50, despite not having had as many thrashing as the Whites have against the division’s elite teams. This makes the overperformance of their opponents harder to explain. Perhaps Everton have simply been unlucky that their opponents have been clinical. 

Burnley are the only team of the three who have conceded less goals than their xG against, which suggest they should have conceded 53.6. Nick Pope’s strong performance could be a reason for this. Also, Burnley’s low-block defending means that penalty boxes tend to be very busy and opponents rush their shots as they are under pressure, making them miss more often. 

Who will survive?

After a brief overview of the underlying numbers, it’s clear that each team has its issues and they are where they are for a reason. 

When it comes to predicting who will remain in the league, what happens on Thursday night will be vital. Everton should be able to get the two points they need in their final fixtures but if they lose to Palace, traveling to Arsenal on the final day would make them very nervy as that is a game they look likely to lose. Should that happen, they would be relegated if Leeds beat Brentford and Burnley get two points in their final two games. 

Burnley will definitely be safe if they take four points from their final two, as Leeds would not be able to make up their goal difference discrepancy. Anything less than that leaves them vulnerable but a point would be enough from their final two, should Jesse Marsch’s Leeds side fail to take anything from Brentford. 

As such, Leeds look the favourites for the drop at the moment. They will be watching the games on Thursday night and praying for the favours that give them the best chance on the final day.